The meeting was held to discuss the latest developments in the dialogue the UN had brokered and ways to reinforce and move forward the dialogue process. I discussed some of the issues outstanding and the circumstances surrounding the meeting in a recent Digital Journal article.
The last press release from the Untied Nation’s Security Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) was on July 31 but there has been nothing from that source since: In a press conference after the meeting, SRSG Leon said that he hopes that a dialogue round to advance the Libyan political agreement that was initialled earlier in July will convene in the coming week. Different ideas were discussed to resume the process with all Libyan participants. UNSMIL will be in contact with the parties.
As usual, with UNSMIL press releases little information is given. We are informed that the GNC delegation was headed by GNC president Nouri Sahmain and that other officials present were the Algerian Minister of Maghreb Affairs, the African Union, the Arab League, and the Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni. However, we are not given the slightest clue of what was decided if anything, nor any details of the discussion. Notice the completely general nature of the description of what happened, “different ideas were discussed to resume the process with all Libyan participants”. We are given no information of what ideas were discussed or even what the problems are. Discussions in the few other sources that even report on the talks indicate some of the issues.
A report in the Libya Herald notes the GNC claims that Leon agreed to amend the dialogue draft approved by other dialogue participants back in the early part of July. The GNC says it will continue to boycott the dialogue until amendments they propose are considered. The demands are discussed in an earlier article. However, the Herald article also points out: Other delegates to the Dialogue, together with the House of Representatives, have insisted there can be no change to the text of the Draft, and in Algiers Leon told Abu Sahmain that the Draft as it stands was the only basis for solving Libya’s crisis.
Up to now, reports have indicated Leon was, as the Herald reports, unwilling to amend the agreement since it had been initialled by other participants. Yet on president Sahmain’s return to Tripoli, he claimed the talks with Leon had been a success. He even claimed that an amendment agreed to by Leon was that the draft agreement had to be ratified not only by the HoR government in Tobruk but also by the GNC. This would be a significant change since up to now the draft requires only that the the HoR parliament need approve the draft. Given that there are two rival parliaments it seems only fair that both should ratify the agreement, but it is doubtful the HoR would ever agree to the requirement that the GNC ratify it. They regard the GNC as illegitimate and only the HoR as legitimate. The GNC takes the opposite position claiming that the HoR was dissolved by a decision of the Libyan Supreme Constitutional Court last November. Given the claims by the president of the GNC that contradict Leon’s earlier position and the understanding of other participants, you would think that Leon would not remain silent but would indicate who is correct or what his position is.
Another GNC participant claimed Leon suggested that GNC views could be considered as part of the discussion on the annexes of the agreement. However, the GNC rejected this and insisted that the whole draft should be reviewed and amendments made before discussion of the annexes and that Leon had accepted this. As mentioned in the UNSMIL press release, Leon hopes to have another dialogue round this week. According to the Herald he wants to come up with the names of the prime minister of the new government and of two deputy prime ministers. One of these is to be approved by the GNC. Those three then choose ministers for the new government. However, it is difficult to see how this could possibly happen unless there is a review and amendments to the main draft as demanded by the GNC. None of this makes sense except as power politics theatre
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is seeking more backing for the UN so-called peace plan initialed by just one of the two rival governments on July 12:“We cannot allow one or two or three different spoiler groups who have not achieved all of their goals they had hoped to achieve though the conflict to destroy the entire process. We agree that we are going to review a couple of possibilities and options over the course of the next days of how we might get greater support to the U.N. initiative right now.”
These “spoilers” are three of the key figures in any solution. They include the armed forces of the Tripoli government but also General Kahlifa Haftar, head of the HoR government forces along with the air force commander. So forces on both sides will have no part of the deal. Leon has said a military agreement alongside the political agreement is absolutely necessary. So what is happening with the military dialogue? The other key spoiler is the GNC government. How does speaking of an agreement even make sense when one main government is not even a party to it? The EU has already named several Tripoli-associated figures along with Khalifa Haftar and his air force commander as subject to sanctions.
Now the U.S. might join the EU crowd according to Kerry: “We are going to review a couple of possibilities and options over the course of the next days how we might get greater support to the UN initiative right now.” It will be interesting if the US decides to sanction US citizen and former CIA asset General Haftar.
Many western countries are anxious to force the UN agreement on the Libyans and to force a new Government of National Accord on them. They then expect their own creation to agree to their planned military intervention in Libya. The civil war they will have started may interfere with these plans.
