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Op-Ed: Ukraine shoots down hypersonic missile — Media coverage less accurate

This incident needs proper analysis.

A Patriot air defense system fires a missile during an exercise in Taiwan in 2006
A Patriot air defense system fires a missile during an exercise in Taiwan in 2006 - Copyright AFP/File Prakash MATHEMA
A Patriot air defense system fires a missile during an exercise in Taiwan in 2006 - Copyright AFP/File Prakash MATHEMA

The story about Ukraine shooting down a Russian hypersonic missile raises a lot of big issues for the military around the world. The media coverage, however, misses just about all of those issues.

The Ukrainian story is pretty simple in theory:

  • Hypersonic missiles supposedly can’t be shot down.
  • They’re also supposed to be Russia’s “unstoppable” weapons.
  • They include tactical and ballistic missiles and are supposed to be nuclear-capable.
  • They’re Russia’s primary threat.  
  • A Ukrainian Patriot anti-missile system got a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

The images of the missile shot down are pretty convincing. The nose cone is bulky, blackened, and about the right shape. The Russians say it wasn’t shot down, which is even more convincing.

What, did it blow itself up and then catch a bus to Ukraine for a photo opportunity?

Now things get tricky. The Patriot systems are supposed to be obsolete, at least according to the Russians. In theory, and apparently, only in theory, they’re not capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles. They’re also much older than the Russian hypersonic systems by about 40 years. Note that the Ukrainians have current Patriot upgrades.

So either the hypersonic missiles are nothing like invulnerable, or this particular firing mission was mismanaged to an incredible extent. This issue really is all about make or break for the credibility of hypersonic systems. Previous Russian firings have also been pretty lacklustre in performance.  

China, Russia, and the US are investing heavily in hypersonic missiles. Despite the obvious propaganda values of shooting down a hypersonic missile, if they can be destroyed by existing interceptors, they’re nowhere near their claimed invulnerability. That makes them potentially useless.

Even the nuke theory of hypersonics doesn’t look too good:

Q: If a nuclear warhead was included, would interception set it off?

A: Not necessarily and quite probably not at all. Nukes have to arm properly to detonate. If the nuclear warhead arming system doesn’t work, it’s just a large expensive snowball.

This is also where a bit of distrust of the “hype” part of hypersonic weapons has to get a word in and that’s not happening. Coverage also leaves out the billions of dollars invested in these hypersonic weapons. The US military in particular may well be playing catchup unnecessarily.

Hypersonic is about as fast as missiles can go. If they can be stopped by decades-old interceptors, so can every other kind of missile. The Missile Age may have come to an abrupt end, overnight, at least at the ground-strike tactical levels.

Patriots aren’t the only things that can stop hypersonic missiles. They can also be blocked by high-pressure waves. No airframe designed to travel at Mach 10 can take any sort of damage and still fly properly. An airburst at X pressure would effectively neutralize it.

Rail guns with adapted munitions could deliver versions of this effect faster than hypersonic missiles can travel. Lasers and particle weapons could also stop them. Airborne networks of loitering munitions could also be a problem at short time frame ranges.

…All of which leads me to a snide remark:

Why are tactical and strategic issues routinely left out of media coverage? They should at least be discussed on some level.

The media has proven itself able to provide 80-year-old tactical theories and get them wrong in Ukraine on a regular basis. Perhaps they’re branching out into new and more exciting forms of military illiteracy. This incident needs proper analysis.

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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.

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Editor-at-Large based in Sydney, Australia.

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