Maybe the first casualty of war is realism. Two years after the beginning of Russia’s futile disastrous war against Ukraine, NATO is stirring like a drunk after a hangover. It’s certainly taken long enough.
The West has been dragging its heels on decisive policy and action in Ukraine for so long it’s absurd. Russia, meanwhile, faced with a military debacle really seen in history, Is rattling a saber it obviously doesn’t know how to use. It has few enough people left to use it as well.
In what may well be one of the most ignominious situations in American history, NATO has had to create a “Trump proof” budget to support Ukraine. America won the Cold War by focusing on strategic priorities. America is now as unfocused as it’s ever been. A previous America would have seen this as a golden opportunity to put rather a lot of problems to rest.
Russia broke itself during the Cold War. Economic, strategic, and fundamental political misconceptions did most of the work. The Ukraine war is arguably worse and looks like self-destruction for the sake of self-destruction. The USSR can’t work anymore. This is a very different world.
A collection of plush toys pretending to be a bear isn’t very credible either. This is not the ferocious tough-minded Russia of the bad old days. In the past Russians fought for Russia despite its governments not because of them. That’s clearly not the case now. How many people want to die to make a few billionaires a few more dollars?
The result has been a protracted war in which Russia should have taken the hint when it withdrew from the north. Even the illusion of support from the West by simply not supporting Ukraine appears to be enough to make Russia persist in its unbelievably idiotic war.
Russia has recently started conscription of 150,000 more troops after already basically destroying at least a quarter of a million previous troops, for more insanity. Such utter imbecility doesn’t really need an explanation. It needs to stop.
The bottom line here is that billions of dollars’ worth of capital are being wasted in an athlete pointless war. Tens of thousands of lives are being lost and destroyed. …And somehow that’s okay with someone.
Lines are now being drawn that should never have needed to be drawn. NATO is now focused. Russia is a mess. People are still dying.
The risks of escalation and high enough. Poland is rapidly building up its military strength in direct response to the Ukraine war. Germany is lethargically and belatedly following suit. There’s every reason to believe this will get messy. Violations of NATO airspace in the search for F16 airbases will not go unchallenged. It’s all too obvious that any kind of friction will start a fire. Belarus will be in the middle of whatever happens.
Much rhetoric will be used as an excuse for whatever idiocy happens next. Russia is misreading its own position as much as it is misreading everybody else’s positions. A fully supplied and armed Ukraine combined with a fully supplied and armed NATO does not equal good news for Russia.
America is in misreading the situation on one side and not doing enough on the other. The Biden administration has been very clear on its support for Ukraine.
The Regressive Republican Rabble are apparently in favor of wars of aggression on the part of one of their candidate’s many creditors. It’s a bit hard to tell. Coherent statements aren’t usually available from this source. These pusillanimous polarities don’t and can’t make good policy.
Just to make it interesting, this is an American election year. Not much can be expected from these geniuses.
It’s taken two years for anybody to make the decisions that should have been made in February 2022. Every subsequent disaster was allowed to happen in this haze of inertia. Even the unthinkable nuclear threats were not met with unequivocal responses or any sort of real deterrent.
History doesn’t repeat itself. It simply rephrases itself. If anyone’s looking for 1939, It’s right here again.
A conventional war would be bad. It would take a lot longer and completely disrupt everything that hasn’t been disrupted already. Russia can’t win a conventional war. It can’t win a conventional peace either.
The stage is now set for yet another futile murderous exercise over a decade or so. Congratulations humanity you’ve done it again.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
