The “peace for rare earths” idea touted by Trump has to be one of the worst in US history. Not only is this “deal” ridiculously one-sided, but it also effectively lists a lot of US vulnerabilities.
The deal is also very short on specifics for any kind of peace. What happens? What about territories, war crimes, keeping the peace, and everything else.
You’d think all this was half-baked enough. But like in direct marketing ads that never get to the point, there’s more, and some of it is actually worse.
Rare earths are exceptionally valuable. Ukraine does have a healthy supply of many of these minerals.
There are more than a few problems with that situation:
Just about everybody wants those minerals.
It’s well worth China’s time to do a good deal with Ukraine.
China, which currently has the majority of these resources, could corner the market by doing a deal with Ukraine.
China has infinitely more serious clout with Russia than the US.
Europe, which is pro-Ukraine, could also put in a claim to buy Ukraine’s rare earths.
Europe was very annoyed with Trump’s antagonistic “diplomacy” and anti-NATO noises during his first term. This time it’s arguably worse and far more serious on many new levels.
Nobody would be too heartbroken to leave Trump out of the deal completely after his hostility to all other parties.
The risk is that the US has just talked itself out of contention with a single ill-advised statement.
As a proposal, it’s more like a form of bullying, which will naturally generate a negative response. (At the time of writing, the proposal has been rejected.)
Lack of rare earths could cripple future AI initiatives before they start.
America would be at a pricing disadvantage when sourcing rare earths.
It could also be further disadvantaged in core research, basically giving the lead in AI to China over time.
This could turn into a fatal bad move for the US.
The old Roman saying holds true: “If you’d kept your mouth shut, we’d have thought you were clever.”
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
