The much hyped meeting of Trump and Putin to decide the future of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to do much. Headlines are full of spin, but not much substance.
For those under 40, this is old-style diplomacy, and it doesn’t work. In this case, it can’t work at all.
Ukraine has already said it won’t cede territory. Putin remains committed to his original failed position. Trump has so far achieved nothing at all after months of blather and useless talk.
There’s much more at stake:
For Putin, this is very much “his” war. His name is on it. The fate of Russia is at stake. Militarily, total failure has been achieved at a horrific cost.
The US is actually losing this war. Trump’s constant denigration and undermining of longstanding US alliances puts the US in a much more difficult position. Trump is creating his personal obstacle course for the future.
Europe has been pushed into a new military role that it didn’t want, upgrading NATO capabilities at great expense.
Ukraine knows it has support from Europe and elsewhere. Things are tough, but not impossible.
It’s the long-term damage that will decide. It will also define this war as a human reality. This is where history starts sneering.
This is no longer 2014. The geopolitical realities in the region have changed forever. The situation is so clear that the future will wonder why nobody saw the obvious.
Donetsk and Luhansk are devastated and severely contaminated with the chemistry of war. They have been war zones for many years. They will be a gigantic economic burden on Russia, even if Russia can hold them.
Crimea is now a barely supportable Russian outpost. Lack of water and continual exposure to increasingly penetrant Ukrainian attacks have made it more of a liability to Russia than an asset.
This is the physical reality that the Trump-Putin summit is supposed to “solve”?
The US can’t actually commit Ukraine to anything. Russia can’t force terms on Ukraine.
The military reality is that despite all the flailing away with drone strikes, the damage is comparatively superficial. Critically, the Ukrainians simply don’t believe Russia intends to end the war. This “summit of the senile” is therefore dead in the water before it starts.
Historically, the scenario is unambiguous to put it politely. The US is definitely not what it was. Russia is not the USSR. They no longer have the international roles they had. The world just doesn’t believe in them anymore.
The US isn’t seen as the leader of the free world, largely thanks to Trump. Russia isn’t considered the Red Menace anymore, just an aggressor.
Russia and the US also aren’t in anything like great shape themselves. Both economies are under tremendous self-inflicted stress. This doesn’t help credibility. Why would anyone believe these two meandering disaster areas can solve anything?
When history sneers, it’s for a reason.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
