It’s not a good idea to make predictions or resolutions because those sort of pronouncements could often turn up being wrong. Instead, we will look at some obvious trends in climate change news that we can expect to be seeing and experiencing in 2016.
El Nino’s impact in 2016
In November of 2015, El Nino set a record for warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and it has not let up as the climate system continues to strengthen, creating disastrous weather patterns around the globe. The weather system has created havoc in the western Pacific, Ethiopia and Malawi in Africa and Guatemala, Haiti and Honduras in Latin America.
In November, the United Nations weather authority issued a report that estimated the current El Nino would affect 40 to 50 million people worldwide, leaving them facing hunger, disease and water shortages in early 2016.
In many of these countries, food insecurity is already an issue, and continued aberrations in the weather due to El Nino will continue to occur, creating a higher risk for health issues, including disease and increased mortality. As the world is aware, the ability to respond to and alleviate some of the impacts of El Nino is dependent on national and local government preparedness, and in many developing countries, an adequate infrastructure is often lacking.
The warming ocean in 2016
One of the most obvious indicators of global warming is the changes being seen in our oceans. Ocean acidification and warming have already had an impact on marine fisheries. Warming waters created the largest toxic algae bloom on the western coast of North America ever recorded, forcing the closure of a number of bivalve seasons. Now, domoic acid has been found in the flesh of several commercial marine fish species, and the future is suddenly uncertain because the toxic algae bloom is expected again in 2016.
Whales, sea lions, and seabirds have died by the hundreds, maybe even thousands and the most likely culprit seems to be toxic algae. It won’t go away simply because El Nino will finally dissipate because the weather pattern has nothing to do with the ocean water’s temperature. We can expect to see more marine life die-offs in 2016.
Climate change will become a national security issue
Climate change has been called an environmental, economic, and political issue, but until recently, no one ever considered it a national security issue. To expand on the idea, climate change impacts can and do affect a country’s national security in a number of ways, and we will probably see this growing into a much bigger issue in 2016.
Interestingly, back in 2003, a Department of Defense report called “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security” was issued. No one paid much attention to the report then, but it has suddenly become very relevant today.
The report put forth a scenario where climate change would lead to food shortages, a lack of potable water, adverse weather conditions and drought. This scenario would lead to instability in governments, leading to local fighting, battles and even war due to a lack of resources. The writers surmised this scenario could lead to climate change refugees flooding less impacted countries by the millions.
How serious is climate change to the federal government? In two words, very serious. In 2014, a paper called the Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap was published. Francesco Femia, founding director of the Center for Climate and Security says of the 2014 roadmap, “We’ve seen very clear evidence that climate change is already impacting security in a number of places around the globe, including strategically significant places like Syria.”
Knowing that climate change is not going to disappear anytime soon, and also realizing it is an ongoing issue, the trend toward global warming having a continuing and greater effect on national security in a number of countries is something we may be seeing a great deal more of in 2016.
