The recent announcements of Russian mobilization and threats of nuclear war haven’t gone down too well. In the face of total failure and what is effectively a rout of Russian forces in Ukraine, these edicts from the Kremlin are questionable at best.
The added insistence on referendums in separatist areas is a sort of legal excuse. In theory, if the separatist referenda opt to join Russia, Russia can claim to be defending sovereign Russian territory.
In practice, the referenda will be ignored by most of the world. They’ll certainly be ignored by Ukraine. The Russian-backed separatists want to be part of Russia; it’s unlikely anyone else does. Donetsk and Luhansk have been destroyed largely by Russian artillery; local administration is chaotic; therefore they want to be part of Russia?
Come off it. Why? Do they like starving and living in a wasteland? Seems unlikely, somehow.
The actual geopolitical legalities, almost irrelevant as they are, are a bit different. Russia guaranteed the borders of Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk were basically stolen in 2014. There’s not even a theoretical legal basis for any Russian claims on Ukrainian territory. That hasn’t stopped the current crisis from evolving into what it is now.
Mobilization
The mobilization of Russian reservists comes with a few built-in existing disasters. Previous use of reservists in Ukraine has already been utterly catastrophic for the Russian army. These troops are also expected to use 60-year-old fossils against modern Western weapons. That hasn’t been working too well, either.
This mobilization is a recipe for even worse dysfunction and Russian military failures. What are they supposed to fight with, samovars and Krokodil? It’s beyond absurd. Even if Russia’s mobility-impaired logistics can get these guys anywhere near combat, what use can they be?
Russia’s unpaid, unequipped, unsupplied troops would be lucky to fight off a head cold, let alone the Ukrainian military. Mobilization means nothing.
Nukes or no nukes?
This escalation is more than just bizarre. It’s suicidal. If the nuclear arsenal is in the same abysmal condition as the rest of the Russian military, who knows what might happen?
What might happen is this:
- Instant coalescence of the Western military to a war footing. Military production goes to war levels.
- NATO enters Ukraine. A real war means the gloves come off.
- Belarus falls over because Russia can’t support it militarily.
- Republics cut links with Moscow to avoid becoming nuclear targets and for aesthetic reasons.
- China can absolve itself of any responsibility for support to Russia with ease. (Xi Jinping wasn’t exactly effervescent with praise in the recent meeting with Putin.)
- Russian troops mutiny all over Russia. (As it is, a lot of them have refused to fight in Ukraine. This may well be the last straw.) There aren’t enough FSB, Chechens, or Wagner Group to fight them.
As for “ continuing nuclear blackmail” as described by Putin and nobody else – Why bother? Russia’s military is collapsing quite well already. No need to even mention the subject on the Western side and nobody has.
Nuclear war
Russia supposedly has 5000+ nukes. There is a new post-Soviet generation of nukes, but it’s unclear how many of these are operational. The older nukes may not be functional, simply because they’re so old and maintenance is so expensive… Or should I say lucrative? Like the tanks and everything else that fell to bits in days? Russia also hasn’t had much time to build many, if any, of the newer weapons.
If you assume 20 to 50% of these nukes are deliverable, the threat is much reduced, but still likely to cause a global catastrophe. That’s one of the reasons China may also not be too keen on Russia starting a nuclear war.
The nuclear card is the only playable card for Russia, but it’s a weak, one-time-only card. Russia could be decimated by the UK and France alone, never mind the US arsenal.
The logic is seriously flawed. Any nuclear action will bring an immediate response. The relatively small highly populated areas of western Russia could be annihilated easily.
Putin has said he’s not bluffing. Let’s be clear about this. Nor is anyone else. There can be only one response to any use of nuclear weapons. The Russian people know that, too.
This is a desperate move by someone playing a losing game. As I’ve mentioned before, don’t be too surprised if at least one of those Russian nukes is aimed straight at the Kremlin.
It can happen.
