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Op-Ed: Running away from Kharkiv, not just reality this time — Russians retreat in unseemly haste

This is how it will end.

A Ukrainian fighter stands on the top of a tank in Kharkiv
A Ukrainian fighter stands on the top of a tank in Kharkiv - Copyright AFP/File ISAAC LAWRENCE
A Ukrainian fighter stands on the top of a tank in Kharkiv - Copyright AFP/File ISAAC LAWRENCE

After six months of arguably the least competent, least credible, least rational military campaign in nearly a century, the Russians are leaving the Kharkiv region. They’re on the move just as the rightly infamous Autumn muddy season begins. Movement will be extremely difficult for Russia’s severely depleted logistics.

The Ukrainians are now about 50km from the Russian border. Russian authorities have told residents to evacuate the area. It’s unclear what forces the Russians have in the region. According to one source, the Kremlin has ordered a retreat… some time after the actual rout began, apparently.

To put this unsightly mess into perspective:

  • The Kharkiv region is very close to Russia and should be easy to supply from Belgorod.
  • The Ukrainians are meeting little opposition, and none of that opposition is effective.
  • A few months ago, this region was hosting the major Russian offensive in the east.
  • The large numbers of Russian troops are apparently gone.
  • Open criticism of the Russian army, which was unthinkable a week ago, is now rampant.
  • Russian nationalists are very upset with the army. How sad.

The Russians obviously have no choice but to retreat. Resistance is so slight that there’s not even the pretense of fighting to hold territory. The retreat is so rapid that even the Ukrainians don’t seem too sure how much territory is being abandoned.

It’s quite possible this retreat was ordered by local civil authorities and military commands. It’s very clear that the Russians aren’t hanging around to find out what happens when the Ukrainians arrive. The level of total disorganization and highly questionable quality of information is in keeping with Russian behavior over the entire course of the war.

The Russians obviously have no control at all over the military situation. That’s particularly interesting. An area of this size (1000 square kilometers plus) would typically be under the command of an army or at least a corps. Such a large command would be well supported and under direct supervision from Moscow.

… And the total official Russian statement so far is that someone ordered a retreat? This is what happens when you run wars by political press releases – Chaos with or without a by-line. There are no signs of any cohesion at any level.

Russia’s rather lazy efforts to run this war by press statements and antiquated rhetoric haven’t worked at all well. Like the equally antiquated tactics and museum equipment, nothing works well, if at all.

Defining a military and political catastrophe

If you avoid reality long enough, it comes looking for you. That’s what’s happening now. After a series of absolutely farcical, (not to say militarily obscene), failures the wheels have fallen off the samovar.

Tens of thousands of Russians have died and been wounded for no reason at all. Certainly no sane reason. Much of the total Russian military inventory is either destroyed or in a total shambles. The long-term joke is that you can’t re-equip a military that’s fallen to bits and lost all credibility with itself.

No amount of bluster will work. No noisy threats can work. The world, like the Ukrainians, has heard quite enough. No amount of petty-minded hits on Ukrainian infrastructure will change the facts. The Russian army has buried itself in Ukraine, and it can’t dig itself out. Even the propagandists can’t argue anymore.

The post-truth era is ending and very aptly, it’s dying word by word. No amount of lies can change anything. Disinformation has failed repeatedly in this war. Nobody has believed a damn word coming out of Russia for months. INFEKTION has infected itself, fatally.

This is total defeat, with a few remaining Ukrainian paddocks all there is to show for total failure. Repeated frantic changes of commanders have achieved nothing. The fact is that massive corruption and nepotism cannot run an army.

Rarely if ever has any modern army fallen to bits so completely, so quickly. A vast arsenal of munitions was fired at Ukraine and it bounced off. The imagery of this war says it all for the immediate future, too. This is the same army that’s expected to hold Crimea? How? With what? In what stupid political fantasy this time?

Even the image of the Russian military is evaporating. At the beginning of the war, Russian support systems were neatly presented in rows and columns of vehicles. Russian troops in spotless uniforms were visible everywhere, waving flags. The rows of vehicles are gone. You occasionally see the Russian troops in drone footage, scurrying around like mice.

The Russians now have to supply whatever troops are around with whatever they can find, and that’s obviously little enough. That’s if they can even locate the troops they’re supposed to be supplying, and have anything to supply them with.

The vast numbers of tanks and armored vehicles are long gone. It’s like they never existed. The big hyperbaric weapons are gone. The hypersonic missiles made an occasional appearance and simply proved they weren’t all that effective and didn’t stop anything much.

Russian troop morale is abysmal, with good reason. These troops could be forgiven for wondering which side their government is on. They’re at the bottom of the pecking order, whether they’re alive or dead.

Russia’s mercenaries turned out to be aptly named. Their combat performances have been mediocre and comparatively rare. They’re getting paid; at least some of the Russian army isn’t getting paid at all.  

Donetsk and Luhansk, the pro-Russian breakaway provinces, have been pulverized by Russian artillery. The locals don’t seem to have ever been in the loop regarding actual Russian intentions, even before the war.

The Russian air force has basically run out of steam, months ago. Ukraine is now sprinkled with top-of-the-line Russian fighters. This very expensive, totally counterproductive rate of losses is the exact model of defeat in the air.

The Russian navy couldn’t even hang on to Snake Island, or do much with it when it had it. Not much has been heard of the navy since. Ship losses were marginally less disastrous than those of the other services, but so what?  

The rest of the picture is equally disastrous. There are the issues of repatriating Ukrainian civilians deported to Russia, war crimes, reparations, and restoration of the original borders pre-2014. It’s a long, brutal, self-inflicted haul to come for Russia.

The payoff will be extremely expensive for Russia

The initial attack on Kharkiv failed utterly. The very first pictures of the invasion were of a huge rocket barrage, going on for a very long time.  The Ukrainians didn’t budge. The Russians broke.

Now, very appropriately, it’s around Kharkiv where the entire Russian campaign is drowning in its own delusions, past and present.

When an army starts running, it’s very hard to stop. When criminals turn on each other, they’re impossible to stop. Expect a major internal implosion, soon enough.

This is how it will end.

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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.

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Written By

Editor-at-Large based in Sydney, Australia.

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