The Russian missile which hit a Ukrainian train station full of evacuees had the words “for our children” painted on it. Russia suddenly “laments” 10% of its actual casualties as “significant losses”.
Meanwhile, a tweaked and rebooted false narrative is giving Russia reasons for escalation.
The false narrative includes some annoyingly familiar, Nazi-style lies:
Russia says Ukraine will use chemical weapons on its own people. The WHO cites this adorable little fecal offering as an indicator Russia really is preparing to use its own chemical weapons. This isn’t reverse psychology; it’s a basic propaganda technique, accusing the other side of something so you can do it yourself.
Falsifying casualties is a standard tactic used routinely in wars. Russia has apparently convinced itself that it has dodged an unavoidable issue as the bodies return to Russia. The official figure stated is about 1,200 less than a single trainload of 2500 dead sent to Belarus which was loaded at night and shipped secretly a couple of weeks ago.
No information regarding actual Russian strategic issues has been provided. “Regrouping” the rabble has now been going on for about two weeks. This is supposedly the preliminary to an attack in the east of Ukraine. Russia has made no headway at all in those weeks.
The months-long rain of bombs and missiles on Ukrainian civilians isn’t even getting mentioned by the Russians, who claim they’re avoiding civilian casualties. There are some indications that Russian forces are firing using map references only, assuming they’ll hit something, sooner or later. This is idiot-level gunnery and tactically absurd, guaranteed to fail. The total lack of effect on Ukrainian military forces isn’t a subject for discussion, either.
This is the new narrative
Russia is slowly cobbling together a revision of its original lie. The fake logic is simple to the point of idiocy, but it’ll work in information-starved Russia.
- NATO and the US are supporting the Ukrainians.
- That proves Russia right about the threat from NATO and the West in general.
- Therefore Russia was right to attack Ukraine.
- The original objectives were supposedly achieved according to Russia, so running away to Belarus makes sense.
- The Donbas was the real focus all the time, so tens of thousands of casualties around other regions are perfectly logical.
- The economy is fine. (It probably is fine for billionaires, just not for the Russian people.)
- Shortages are only temporary. Sure they are. When a single shopping trolley of sugar appeared in a Russian supermarket, there was a stampede.
- Food is a weapon according to Putin, despite shortages in Russia. (Russian wheat production is 11% of the world’s total. Ukraine is about 3%. The statement is almost totally meaningless, but what the hey.)
- Russia has temporarily banned exports of wheat and other foods to ex-Soviet states.
This could be Russia’s last war
Ironically, Russia’s various missteps and mistakes in this war are creating a much bigger and far more real “existential threat to Russia” than the West could ever be. The real threat comes from the fact that Russia isn’t working too well as a nation anymore.
The traditional Soviet-style centralized nature of Russian population distribution and infrastructure is a problem. It means that peripheral parts of Russia are likely to be short of anything and everything. When the Soviet Union collapsed, that was one of the reasons for such a large number of breakaway states.
Other reasons included multiple ethnicities, difficult distribution and logistics, climate, and sheer distance. Russia has always been a mix of “all the Russias”, some of which aren’t even Russian.
That may have worked in the past, where Russian living conditions were truly primitive, but not now. This layout has never been efficient. Regional Russia has often been left to its own devices.
To give examples – When German troops invaded a village in western Russia in 1941, the Russian villagers greeted them warmly and asked how the Kaiser was getting along. They didn’t even know about the 1917 revolution. Also in WW2, the eastern Russian troops were even further behind the times. Siberian troops in Germany didn’t know what light globes were.
Now, the regions are better informed but not exactly well supported by the central authorities, whoever’s in charge. Many regional troops are being deployed in Ukraine, and the current reports are that Russian troops are refusing to fight. Even at grunt level, the Russian machine doesn’t, and probably can’t, work properly.
A lost war might well be the end of Russia as we know it. The biggest irony is that this pointless, ugly, unnecessary war may bring down the obscenity that started it. The failure will come from within simply because of structural obsolescence. It has happened before.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
