As the wheels fall off the Ukraine war for Russia, Putin has taken the time to refocus on the global situation from his perspective. It’s a pretty stark contrast. It’s also an extension of the past into a region the rest of the world has left behind.
A certain amount of this refocus is understandably about positioning Russia for a post-Ukraine war environment. The Ukrainians have other ideas. The nuclear focus is no accident. Having raised this very unwelcome subject, the need is now to put it back to bed.
This Russo-centric view of the world, however, stops at Russia’s borders. Russia wasn’t on the world’s radar pre-war. The net global reaction to US warnings of an imminent war was “Huh?” As I and many other commentators have mentioned way too often, nobody was focusing on Russia, let alone thinking of attacking it.
Why the hell would anyone attack Russia? Why bother, anyway? The war has shown massive nationwide internal breakdowns and dysfunctions. If anyone’s attacking Russia, right now it’s Russia itself.
The nuclear rhetoric from the peasant peanut gallery on Russian media was irritably but duly ignored by the world. “Nuclear war = certain death” doesn’t need a useless sycophantic cheer squad, however idiotic and counterproductive.
Putin is now trying to create a dialog out of thin air and total silence. He does have to address all of these issues, somehow and make a credible Russian position out of the hideous mess. That’s been made much more difficult by Russian troops and their actions in Ukraine.
There are just too many issues. War crimes, deportations, and the carnage of the war can’t be talking points. Putin wants the West to “force” Ukraine to negotiations. That won’t happen. This war is the active incarnation of a much longer, grim story.
Russia and Ukraine have issues going back 100 years to the Russian civil war, the famine caused by collectivization under Stalin, etc. The Ukrainians fought against Russia in World War 2, not so much on the German side as on their own side. A lot of people died in that century, many more than in this war.
The degree of separation is as wide as the degree of difficulty in any sort of interaction between Ukraine and Russia. Talk can’t be enough. The Ukrainians won’t back down, and they don’t have to; they’re winning.
Russia’s options are classic symptoms of every “Great Power” in decline since World War 1. Defeat is real enough and staring Gogol’s Dead Souls in the face. The Ukrainians won’t stop until they get their country back. The Russian military is in grim shape. The next 300,000 poor bastards can join the corpses or join the deserters. They can’t really do much if anything.
The West has less influence with Ukraine as an abstract entity than Putin seems to think and this war is based on national, not “Western” interests. As independent nations, the Western countries are supporting Ukraine. That’s not going to change. The sheer speechless anger at the mention of possible nuclear issues was enough to activate these countries like nothing else could. That was a huge own goal for Russia, as Putin seems to recognize.
Russia can’t negotiate from a position of strength now. It was in a better position pre-war where its own credibility wasn’t so very much in question.
The dark side of the mirror looks inwards
Putin’s commentary looks outward, but it’s based on a gruesome inner image of Russia in future. Reality has huge fangs, and it’s biting hard. Systemic Russian military failure wasn’t some invention of the West. The colossal military mistakes weren’t externally created. The death toll also goes inward, not outward.
External realities aren’t that much better than the inward narrative. The naïve trust in China was also based on a different world. China is a true giant with a very different worldview. They don’t mind getting discount oil from Russia and making vaguely supportive noises. That’s a long way from commitment to anything.
The Cold War can’t work in this environment. History can only repeat to the extent it’s possible to repeat. It can’t go back 80 years in a totally different environment. The West is now massively increasing conventional weapons production, but Russia is already hopelessly outgunned anyway.
Humanity has moved on. Russia needs to move on. That world can never come back. Nor should it. The future needs to live, not die.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
