In 1914, the world’s most unnecessary war, leading to many more wars was caused more by talk than fact. Not much has changed. Putin has been ramping up his original rhetoric. The story as usual is the “threat” of NATO, the “liquidation” of Russia, etc.
It’s getting monotonous. It’s also largely irrelevant. Russia is in more danger from itself than any outside elements.
Let’s start with the facts:
- Strategically the war has been an unmitigated catastrophe.
- Russia has demoted itself from Great Power to laughingstock.
- The war is going extremely badly for Russia.
- The Bakhmut meat grinder is working overtime processing Russian conscripts into confetti.
- The rest of the war is stagnant with no pretense of success for Russia.
- There’s nothing at all to show for a year of slaughter.
- The dreaded new Russian multi-warhead nuclear missile was tested as Biden visited Ukraine, and failed.
- Russian military hardware, a major Russian export pre-war, has been shown all over the world being massacred and totally ineffective.
- The Russian military has shown the entire region how to beat the Russian military.
- Russian air defense is so bad a Ukrainian drone could get to the east of Moscow all the way from Ukraine before there was any response.
- Russia is buying drones from Iraq, not home-grown weapons.
- The missile barrages are only barely penetrating Ukrainian defenses. That could well be the case with tactical nukes, too.
The net effect of all this “applied genius” is that talk is about all Putin has left. Even that’s not looking exactly promising:
- Xi Jinping, Russia’s only noteworthy ally, has stated there must not be nuclear war. That effectively scratches any nuclear threats from Russia. Those threats, if made in direct contradiction of Chinese policy, might be a fatal own goal.
- China has not provided weapons. That turned out to be good for China, not wasting weapons on an utterly incompetent war.
- What are the chances China will hand over perfectly good weapons to proven idiots now the war has already failed so dismally?
The “liquidation” of Russia is underway, and it’s being done entirely by the Russians. There’s another meaning to the word “liquidation” that probably wouldn’t occur to an ex-KGB agent. It’s a financial term meaning liquidating assets, a closing down sale.
Russian revenue can’t be doing well, certainly not in comparison to pre-war times. Too many billions have found their way into pockets outside the revenue system for basic fiscal needs to be met.
How is Russia supposed to survive postwar? Will this mangled generation of Russians have a future for their kids? The future isn’t even a subject for discussion.
Talk is usually cheap. In this case it’s worthless.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
