No sooner had the Turkish people delivered a humbling to Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s presidential ambitions than he was standing side-by-side with Russia’s Putin, defiantly blasting European Union leaders for not showing up to Azerbaijan’s European Games event. But don’t take this bravado at face value — Turkey is at a pivotal moment in its history, one that could bring it closer to the Union.
Even if EU-Turkish engagement deteriorated in recent years after the AKP started showing authoritarian tendencies, the June 7 elections offered a strong rebuke to Erodgan’s plans to change the constitution along the lines of an empowered presidency. As Europeans saw Turkey move further away from EU principles and views, Turks were reclaiming a mildly Islamic identity previously masked under the Kemalist secular state. Finding this new conservative Turkey incompatible with its aspirations, the EU substantially withdrew; instead of offering the opposition voice to Erdogan, Brussels shifted focus to more pressing problems in Ukraine and Greece. However, the EU should take Turkey’s new election as an opportunity to breathe life into an otherwise decaying partnership.
Even if Jean Claude Juncker announced that no new countries would join the Union in the next five years, and even if many European states have voiced their opposition to Turkey’s accession, Brussels needs Ankara on its side on a series of issues, ranging from tackling radical Islam to ensuring the continent energy security. In this context, the EU should take notice of the anti-Erdogan campaign that swept across Turkey, resulting in the AKP’s biggest loss in 13 years. In addition to the changing voter base, the EU must not be blind to Turks’ retaliation to Erdogan and his vision of curbing Turkey’s institutions to solidify his own power. Although anti-western political rhetoric has not entirely disappeared, there is enough momentum for the EU to regain its 1990s vitality, and nourish Erdogan’s critics who yearn for greater liberties, security, and advancement; principles the EU has been championing for decades.
The resurgence of the EU comes as a reaction to Erdogan’s critics’ enmity. There is an emerging movement to retreat from the “authoritarian and hierarchical political culture” that has plagued Turkey for many decades, especially under the AKP. By far the most visible, thanks to the 2013 Gezi Park protests, Turkish youths have shown their growing resentment of Erdogan could now find an unexpected ally in human rights lawyer Selahattin Demirtas, leader of the ethnic Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). The 80 seats Demirtas helped gain in the parliament, the first time a Kurdish party breaks through the 10 percent threshold, will represent a loud counterweight to the AKP. The HDP campaigned on a platform of greater freedom of expression and inclusion, with the aim of accelerating the transition from Turkey’s tribal past.
The Middle East meltdown that surrounds Turkey also amplifies the EU’s attractiveness to Turks. Erdogan’s failed foreign policy and contentious stance towards Syria are issues Turks are no longer ignoring. As ISIS moves closer and Ankara’s neo-byzantine dreams turn to ash and isolation, Turks are looking to align themselves more and more with the west. The EU should take Turkey’s current difficult circumstances as an opportunity to put pressure on Erdogan and conjure greater cooperation between Turkey and its neighbours.
Turkey can be seen as an oasis in the chaos that lies just across its Middle Eastern border. Although it is a country where authoritarian leadership trumps its weak institutions, Turkey’s democratic system is considerably sounder than most in the region. Its rapidly growing middle class, no longer satisfied by the panem et circenses handouts of yore, is now the engine that will help fuel the rise of a liberally-minded democracy. These feats are nothing from which the EU should shy away; conversely, it should bring the EU even closer.
So far, Erdogan managed to win three consecutive national elections and monopolize the government thanks to a booming economy. However, because of the Great Recession and the associated drop in exports, both Turkey and Erdogan have lost steam. But as conditions have deteriorated, so has his power. There are several ways in which the EU can harness this difficulty, and bring Turkey to the table.
The controversial Turkish accession to the EU does not even need to be on the agenda. Engagement and strengthening relations between the two parties are not contingent on an end-result of having a 29th EU Member State. Rather, the partnership offers several mutual benefits without EU membership. With Turkey being the only NATO Member State that borders ISIS, the EU can better secure its own frontiers and geopolitical position by working on counter terrorism efforts with Turkey. And the relationship is not single-sided. Turkey stands to gain a great deal by equally engaging with the EU. Deepening a customs union through increased trade could be grounds for a new framework between the two partners, and ameliorate Turkey’s slowed economic growth. A modernised customs union, an issue that has not been touched since 1995, could also include elements of the EU and US TTIP negotiations. Turkey could compel the EU to extend the deal and be allowed to join the framework. These levels of cooperation would benefit both Brussels and Istanbul.
However, if the EU continues to disregard its southern partner, the future may prove to be treacherous for Brussels’ foreign policy. The time is now for the EU to engage with Turkey. After a decade of near-aloofness, the EU should see that there are more similarities than differences in this evolving country, especially in the verve with which Turks have preempted Erdogan’s plan to take hostage Turkish political institutions. With a failed foreign policy, a weakened economy, a less secure environment and a growing multi-ethnic population, the Turkey of 2015 is a completely different political animal than it was a decade ago. It is time to start talking.
