Russia’s test firing of a multi-warhead nuclear missile supposedly capable of hitting anywhere on Earth and “destroying an area the size of France” is a true blast from the past. The mere existence of this weapon could trigger a massive nuclear response to any possible attack from Russia.
According to Putin, the new missile will “make enemies think twice”. That’s nice; except if it wasn’t for him, there’d be a lot fewer enemies and nothing to think about. Russia’s 8-year-long regurgitated Stalinism since 2014 doesn’t engender a lot of confidence or trust in any Russian moves.
(They could have used a more endearing name for the missile, too. I thought “Cupcake” sounded nice. Pleasantly domestic with just a hint of political madness.)
Cold War mode
For those who missed that-there-thither folksy Cold War, there are a few basics to understand:
- Everyone monitors for signs of launches of anything.
- Anything that looks like a multiple launch can set off a nuclear war as the other side counter-launches. The hair trigger is literally just that.
- There are already enough nukes to wipe out all life on Earth.
- It did nearly happen due to mistaken data. Fortunately, a Russian colonel didn’t believe the Americans had launched and didn’t counter-launch. That was sheer luck.
- A weapon like this could cause a pre-emptive strike.
Fun, you’d think? Not really. Somehow, people got a bit uneasy about the whole idea. Now the idea is back, and thanks to Putin, it’s credible. Whoopee.
A few technical issues
This Kim Jong Un-like approach to nukes has a few holes in it:
- Test firing is just that. The vehicle wasn’t armed or loaded. (Just for the record – A dud firing of an armed missile like this could nuke an area in Russia the size of France too, with a little ingenuity.)
- The missile is shown in publicity photos as mounted on an old SS-series launcher mobile platform That imagery may be totally misleading, but putting 200 tons on one of those trucks could simply break the chassis.
- The missile would be extremely hard to move around loaded and would require a support fleet of vehicles, making it easy to spot. Wherever that missile is, it would be a prime target for a first strike.
- The kind of yield required to destroy such a large area is enormous. It’s highly debatable whether Russia’s existing stockpile can deliver that outcome. Therefore new warheads have to be made.
- The missile can supposedly avoid “all countermeasures”. That’s not in any way proven, and is also assuming you know all possible enemy countermeasures. That’s likely to be way too optimistic. Current countermeasures are now being replaced generationally by new systems.
- It’s not just a matter of sticking existing weapons in a new missile. Few current nukes have anything like those very high yields claimed by Russia. Arming this thing with new warheads, let alone actually making those warheads, could be a significant issue.
- Every part of this system from communications to basic binary code would be vulnerable to cyberattack. Are there reliable security countermeasures in place? Unlikely.
Wrong move, wrong time, wrong audience
Of all possible things Putin could have done this week, this would be the move most likely to cause massive reactions and hostility. The sanity of the Russian government was already very much in question; this utter lunacy is proof of a sort.
This sort of nuclear diplomacy won Russia few friends in the past. Russia can be “nuked” economically. The missile issue is likely to cause exactly that response.
The US and NATO will be encouraged to work on actual operational responses to Russian threats, including nuclear response options. Given the state of Russia’s Ukraine campaign, that’s not good news for Russia right now, let alone in the immediate future.
Even without a single one of these missiles being operational, this is an extremely bad move for Russia in far too many ways. Technologically and economically starving Russia will inevitably become standard practice. Like the USSR before it, the basic logistics of modern technologies aren’t Russia’s strong suit. Over any length of time, Russia will fall behind.
The wrong audience isn’t just the rest of the world. This propagandized “triumph” is likely to generate a very negative reaction from the Russians themselves. As their troops and kids are mindlessly fed into the meat grinder in Ukraine and shortages bite, how keen on being nuked are they likely to be?
This is no longer the USSR. The means of nationwide massive repression simply don’t exist. A seriously depleted Russian military may not be too keen to support a government which is getting it wiped out on a weekly basis.
People thinking about being alive next week or in the next 20 minutes may not think being saturation-nuked is a good idea. Other imponderables include the actual viability of Russia as a nation, courtesy of Putin’s one-track thinking, of which this half-baked missile is a case in point.
Russian history is typically a horror story, occasionally relieved by millions of deaths. This little effort could be no exception. It can happen in 20 minutes.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
