Ibrahim Jodhran, the leader of the group has made positive statements about reopening the ports. Jodhran supports the GNA. The two ports have an export capacity of 600,000 barrels a day, and have both been closed since 2014 after armed factions of the former General National Congress government tried to seize control. They were later subject to attacks by the Islamic State (IS). However, now IS is confined to a small area of Sirte.
Mousa Alkoni, a member of the Presidential Council of the GNA said in a ceremony in Tripoli: “We are holding discussions with the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) of the central region.. After the discussions with the PFG are finished, the force majeure will be lifted.” No details were given. Oil production in Libya is only around 350,000 barrels a day, about a quarter of what it was before Gadaffi was overthrown.
Analysts think that damage due to shutdowns and attacks on the facilities will delay reopening and Libya’s ability to recover its oil production. The two rival National Oil Companies (NOC) one in the east at Bayda and the other in the west at Tripoli have agreed to merge. Each is associated with one of the rival governments: the Tripoli-based NOC is associated with the GNA; and the Bayda-based NOC with the House of Representatives Government (HoR), which does not recognize the GNA. Only the NOC associated with the GNA is internationally recognized. The recent agreement would see the chair of the Tripoli-based NOC remain as chair, while the chair of the Bayda-based NOC would become a board member of the merged NOC. The headquarters would be moved from Tripoli to Benghazi once security conditions permit this. Another report on negotiations can be found here.
There are however, problems about reaching any quick increase in production and exports. Some of the issues were discussed in a recent Digital Journal article. Even where ports may be occupied by groups willing to agree to exports with the new NOC, pipelines coming to the ports may be controlled by groups not favorable to the GNA. This happens to be the case not just in the east but in the west as well. Ras Lanuf and Es Sider are controlled by Jodhran who favors the GNA and the new NOC. It is not clear what the position of other groups such as those loyal to commander of the HoR Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar will be. They may refuse to cooperate.
The situation is even worse if a recent article in the Libya Observer is true. According to the article, the PM of the HoR government Al-Thinni has rejected the deal and would not accept it until certain demands were met concerning the division of revenues. If this is true, then there is no agreed merger. Surprisingly, other news sources have not yet commented on this issue and act as if the deal is done.
