“Middle East peace” is just a wistful expression. It hasn’t been a fact or even a possibility for generations. The current situation between Israel and Iran is a heirloom war between two totally opposed forces.
The daily headlines are becoming more like a grotesque weather report. What’s not happening is peace or any suggestion of peace.
Middle East politics largely revolve around conflict. The fires are regularly and often deliberately stoked by “incidents”. These incidents are generally supported by third parties outside the war zones. The current Gaza situation is a prime example.
Iran’s generational support for Hamas and Hezbollah is a genuine threat to Israel. Its endless hostile rhetoric is another. Most of these issues are effectively muted, most of the time, until some genius decides to make it worse.
The Gaza flashpoint, however, has turned into a raging fire for the last year and a half. It’s real enough to trigger escalation on almost any basis. That’s what’s happening now, as Israeli strikes on Iran inevitably caused a direct confrontation.
Into this truly unholy mess stumbles America’s noisy anti-President, fresh from recent triumphs in trade and foreign relations. Will the US participate in strikes on Iran?
Sounds simple, doesn’t it?
It isn’t.
There are more than a few mines in this minefield.
For instance:
The Iranian nuclear issue was well and truly asleep until now. There was no publicly available information regarding the real status of weaponization of uranium, for example, until very recently. Israeli intelligence apparently sees it differently.
The Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran was one of the few successful American initiatives in the Middle East in decades. It did shut down a very tense and extremely difficult situation. One of the issues was convincing Israel that it’d work. Israel had previously attacked Iraqi facilities and was poised to strike Iran. The current situation was effectively delayed by ten years.
Iran has multiple assets and proxies throughout the Middle East and, to a lesser extent, around the world. The attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are cases in point. An American attack on Iran could result in global strikes by Iranian assets in many different forms.
Israel and Iran have been swapping low-key attacks for many years. Israeli cyberattacks and Iranian harassment are pretty normal events. It’s likely that this ongoing and largely futile forever war will heat up fast if the right buttons are pushed.
Local politics in the Middle East are never simple or transparent.
According to Al Jazeera, for example, the Israeli attacks have shored up support for the Iranian leadership. Iran’s domestic issues are rarely mentioned in foreign media, but there have been some major issues with Iran’s stagnant economy.
There’s also a question as to whether Netanyahu has used the Iranian strikes to deflect mounting Israeli criticism of his handling of Gaza. There’s no way of knowing. It’s hard to believe that Israel has suddenly decided to open a second front for a few nice headlines.
The question for America is how to handle this particularly thankless situation.
US airstrikes can only achieve the same degree of penetration as the Israeli strikes.
It’s unlikely that a large, highly decentralized Iranian nuclear weapon program can be entirely shut down by these strikes.
Is there a realistic military objective for the US? There have to be defined criteria for success.
Iran is extremely unlikely to bow to external pressure, particularly from the US.
This sort of war can and does typically go on for years. Major US strikes using all America’s Middle East military assets could simply start a cycle of further escalation, while not materially affecting the situation.
Imagine trying to beat someone to death with a handful of banknotes.
This has all the hallmarks of a long, expensive range of options, none of which will shut down the risks.
It’s a new quagmire in process.
Update: Trump is said to have “privately” approved strikes, according to Reuters, quoting the Wall Street Journal. “Nepo news” is up and running at last.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
