This war is already getting more disingenuous by the minute. The likely winner will be the oil sector, as usual.
If the Iranian regime falls, Big Oil gets another pet country to play with.
Inspiring, isn’t it?
Meanwhile, in the middle of a worldwide cost-of-living crisis, prices are going up as oil gets more expensive.
Any war also destroys US budget projections. It’s gonna be fun for someone, obviously.
And there’s more to come. According to the headlines 1700 targets have been hit by 4000 munitions. It’s barely the equivalent of a few days in Ukraine, but who remembers things?
Iran has launched at least 1000 missiles to little effect on neighboring countries. All-out aerial bombardment can only do so much. Iran is under no threat of invasion or any kind of external coercion.
Both sides are threatening major escalations in strikes.
This war can only be scripted so far. Day One of any war can’t be the whole story. The US is taking minimal risks, in theory, for now. The future could get a lot worse, and the war could globalize and drag out badly.
This is where ‘Vague American War Syndrome’ comes in. The US has a bad habit of never being able to turn off wars when it gets involved. They just keep going. The reasons for the wars vary, but that’s the common symptom of a war America won’t win.
In Korea, the status quo was restored after years. Millions died. In Vietnam, South Vietnam was lost, and millions died. In Afghanistan, inertia replaced objectivity, and the Taliban won, despite their military failures, and millions died. At no point was America clear about its objectives.
Add to this America’s brief attention span. Fairly soon, we’ll be at the “Look! A squirrel!” stage. America’s incredibly ineffective media aren’t going to generate much more than apathy. “Another disaster, so what?” is the likely outcome.
There’s a new issue this time, and it’s a possible precedent for both internal and external political failure.
Since when does America follow another country to war like a faithful rotting gerbil? Who’s directing US foreign policy?
The Trump administration’s unique ability to create a Coalition of the Unwilling on any subject is also now in play.
America’s Western allies are staying out. This is the incarnate form of lack of leadership.
Congress isn’t happy about being bypassed over starting a war. The midterms could derail the war with ease. Trump will go from lame duck to dead duck. That in turn means Israel is unsupported and a future administration may not be inclined to get dragged in. It also means any US commitments are to put it mildly in limbo until further notice. Try fighting a war on that basis.
How bad can it get? Bad enough.
Sometime in the next ten minutes, the geniuses will start wondering what might happen. This war may have been premeditated on the ground level, but not at the strategic long-term level.
Is Iran building a nuclear weapon? No, according to the IAEA.
Does Iran have weapons-grade materials? Yes.
Can Iran source weapons technology from just about anywhere on Earth? Yes.
Even Al Qaeda was looking at high school-level theory for bombs. Pakistan built nuclear weapons with outside help. A nuke doesn’t have to be delivered by missiles. It could be delivered by an innocent third party like a preloaded truck bomb or shipping container, for example. Dirty bombs are another cliché option.
It is incredibly naïve to think that Iran won’t be looking at any possible method of attacking Israel and the US. Think about a global Vietnam with added nukes. This mess could go on for years.
Humanity will not benefit from any of it. This really is “A War Too Far” in too many ways.
It’s Cynics vs Idiots, and you get to guess which is which.
