If the news coming from various sources in Russia is correct, Russia intends to isolate Ukraine and take over the whole southern part of the country. This outcome could not possibly be accepted by Ukraine or the West. This would directly connect Russia with Moldova, a quasi-Russian satellite state left over after the fall of the Soviet Union.
This information comes against a backdrop of truly bizarre situations. Any such situation would also simply prolong the war indefinitely. As Russia continues to demolish its army in combat on a daily basis, it’s pretty strange logic.
An idyllic Russian offensive with a few issues
Russia’s actual military operations come in two forms – For the cameras and for the graveyards. On screens, Russian tanks roll endlessly in some sort of grand Mardi Gras. Off-screen for the Russian people, the sheer amount of scrap metal made of those tanks will fund Ukraine for years.
The Russian troops stroll serenely through what seem to be areas well outside Ukraine. They come back in secret trainloads of body bags to Belarus or elsewhere.
Nor does any of this prehistoric PR have much to do with any sort of theoretical reality. The “great eastern offensive” isn’t doing at all well after several days. There are additionally reports of Chechen troops shooting Russian troops who rioted over lack of pay and other matters.
Russia’s hired private armies are also getting into pretty bad shape. 20,000 mercenaries including the Wagner Group are involved in the Ukraine campaign. The Wagner Group has reportedly been severely diminished by casualties, although even the number of Wagner Group mercenaries deployed isn’t clear from reports.
Hiring mercenaries rather than using Russian troops is indicative of serious and obviously endemic problems in the Russian military. If this is how Russia manages combat capacity on its own doorstep, what happens if Russia does get involved in a war with the West?
Has anyone seen any indication of any baseline functional, efficient element in the Russian military at all? Tactically, they hit everything but active combat targets. It takes them days just to travel a distance of a few hours drive to Kyiv almost unopposed. When they finally arrive, they lose the battle and lose it that badly. Even by the abysmal standards of the Soviet era, this total lack of competence is extraordinary.
Nor is the war paying the actual Russian troops doing the fighting too well. The mercenaries are said to be paid $600 – $3000 a month. That seems to be a lot more than the pay for Russian regular troops. Russian conscripts get almost nothing.
If the Russian troops aren’t even getting their pay, what does it say about any level of organization, let alone Russia’s real priorities? At first, these troops were unsupplied. Now, they’re also unpaid and achieving nothing, rioting, and being shot by Chechen troops. The combat component of the original invasion force has effectively been annihilated. The troops in the new offensive are likely to go the same way.
Meanwhile, a victory parade is evidently far more important than what’s happening on the ground. While the Ukrainians outdo the Spartans at Thermopylae in Mariupol, the Russians dabble in peurile public relations. The “great eastern offensive” was after all scheduled to tie in with the May 9th celebrations. That offensive has returned to the usual grinding-down process with minimal results.
A completely unworkable present and future reality for Russia
A Russian soldier dies in Ukraine every 4 minutes according to casualty estimates and time taken in the initial offensive. On that basis, the entire new offensive could be combat ineffective in another two months or less. About half a million Russian troops have so far been involved in this fiasco. That’s somewhere between a third and half their active forces. The state of the Russian military after this war can only be appalling at best.
The plan to take southern Ukraine simply cannot ever happen. The Ukrainians are nothing like beaten. Their military is in good order and fighting very well. They won’t cede territory.
Russian forces can’t hold the whole of southern Ukraine. There is no end game for Russia in this scenario. If the Russians take territory, they’re soon enough pushed out of that territory. They can’t (and don’t) even hold individual villages. How the hell do they propose to hold southern Ukraine?
This is where it gets truly weird – The Russians know that perfectly well. They could hardly not know that. This entire Russian campaign is now based on achieving something they know can never happen.
As this war continues, Russia will simply continue to fall to bits.
Consider:
- Russia has created multiple existential threats to itself.
- The world is now actively hostile to Russia and doing something about it.
- There are few countries on Earth not supporting Ukraine in some way.
- The world doesn’t like having a nuclear gun pointed at it; a huge and possibly fatal mistake by Russia.
- Every possible wrong diplomatic, economic, and military button has been pushed.
- Russia’s national credibility is completely gone; nothing it says can be believed after reneging on so many deals and agreements.
- Russia is presenting itself as a nation that actively promotes war crimes and atrocities which are fully documented by satellite imagery.
- Internal purges indicate the Russian military and security forces don’t even have the confidence of their own government.
- Russia’s “unofficial economy”, (that is, the multi-billion dollar institutionalized criminal economy), can’t support the whole of Russia and will cause massive price rises in any black market.
- Crime definitely won’t contribute to state revenue, which is now sinking rapidly through loss of trade with no options to regenerate.
- Current sanctions are indefinite and getting stronger; there’s no tomorrow for Russia from that perspective.
…And Russia is talking about future plans? What future? When? What level of Nazi-like self-delusion is required for this almost supernatural level of idiocy? For Russia in the real world, this is 1944, and they’re Hitler.
Nobody’s coming to save Russia from itself. Nobody forgives this sort of behavior. This is the old Russia at its historical worst, the Russia of Ivan the Terrible in its rotting, insane, true form. The past is burying itself, but it’s taking Russia with it.
The name “Putin” means someone who goes along the road. This war and its endless failures is the road to a self-inflicted hell, and that’s exactly where Russia is going. It’s just a matter of time. This war is already over, and the results will be catastrophic for Russia. The future may not include a country called Russia, at this rate.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
