The ceasefire deal with Iran has fallen through due to a supposed breach of Iran’s 10-point plan. Lebanon was to be part of the ceasefire. Israel struck Lebanon, effectively ending the ceasefire hours after it began. Israel says it wasn’t part of the deal. According to Al Jazeera, 254 people were killed in the Israeli strike.
A unilateral ceasefire not including Israel is a pretty dumb situation. There’s no indication Israel was part of the negotiations. The security situation on the ground isn’t really negotiable. It’s an active combat zone. Shutting down combat operations needs time and, more to the point, practical consideration.
On the Iranian side, however, Lebanon was definitely part of their plan. In fact, it was part of the first point of the Iranian plan. So was the complete cessation of the war on Yemen, and a war in Iraq, which doesn’t seem to be getting much media attention.
Those are likely to be major sticking points. The US is now in the truly grim position of coordinating operations on multiple fronts against the stated interests of Israel and the Gulf states. It’s unlikely to be a quick process. It’s less likely to be effective. Hostilities in the Middle East don’t just change with the political mood of a single player.
The US involvement in the Middle East has been a constant, ongoing mess. External players typically prevent peace. Support for one side invariably turns into a war with the other sides. Hormuz is a shining example of the West butting in to a bad situation and making it worse.
Trump is in a self-inflicted very bad place. Iran is sticking to its guns, and it can afford to wait. Iran is effectively calling the shots. The choice is to negotiate under Iranian pressure or refuse to negotiate and keep Hormuz shut indefinitely. Either result is a major loss. He’s not controlling the situation.
Getting Israel onside with any terms related to Lebanon can’t be simple. Leaving the Israelis out of the Hormuz deal was particularly stupid. They’re very much part of this war, and they don’t want to lose by default in any negotiations.
Hezbollah can be called off. Israel could stop operations on that basis. How long will that take? The rest of the world is paying for this. The US is paying with lost prestige and about a billion dollars per day.
Peace is the only meaningful future objective in the Middle East.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
