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Op-Ed: Drop in COVID infection rate in Sydney, yes or no — The thankless task of COVID stats

Any statistician will tell you that the real problem with stats is getting them right and drawing the proper inferences.

A White House official said the US will distribute 500 million free Covid tests as Omicron cases rise. — © AFP
A White House official said the US will distribute 500 million free Covid tests as Omicron cases rise. — © AFP

Far too early to say, but there seems to be a marked downward trend in infection rates. According to COVID-19 NSW, rates are very noticeably going down in many postcodes.

Please note, important: This article is purely observational. The main reason for its existence is useful speculation and hopefully some sort of meaningful argument. At this stage there is no official confirmation of a decline in infections.

Any statistician will tell you that the real problem with stats is getting them right and drawing the right inferences. That’s very much the case with this damn virus. We went from a very quiet period in late 2021 to the current wave, which has been absolutely massive, dwarfing all previous waves.

…So the current stats are at least bit odd. I happened to notice this when I was checking out my own postcode, which is right in the middle of commuter country. This is exactly where you’d expect the highest incidence of cases. It’s also the predictive model for the US, which was bang on target during the first wave.

Anyway; stats for infections around Bankstown have suddenly dropped. The same applies to other major routes and distribution hubs. Liverpool, for example, has had a decline in infection rates in the last week or so.

This is where it gets very tricky

Misinterpreting stats in a pandemic is NOT a good move. This particular virus has a habit of being too cooperative with statistical interpretations.

What we have here is:

  • A reliable reporting system. We don’t have the same issues with access and delays as in other countries.
  • A series of observations of declines. These declines are not uniform across the board, but at least clearly visible. They’re good enough to say, “It looks like the numbers are going down”, from what I’ve seen, but that’s about it.

So…What are we looking at? If there is a decline, why?

A few other known facts:

  • A lot of Sydney has adapted to COVID. People aren’t as easy targets as they were due to remote working, etc.
  • People need to be mobile in Sydney. The risk of infection should be going up, not down.
  • This virus doesn’t take holidays.
  • There was a clear hiatus between the previous wave and this one. Why?

Possible reasons for a decline:

  • People take more precautions automatically.
  • In-house anti-infection precautions are now universal.
  • The vaccination rate is over 90%.
  • The big wave had to run out of steam sometime?

The best interpretation of this collection of backgrounds is “Hmmm….” You simply can’t come up with a One Size Fits All solution. Add to this the fact that the virus is a very fast-mutating thing. Anything can and probably will happen.

Now the speculation

This is NOT proven science. It’s guesswork applied to observations:

  • Maybe specific strains of the virus have a short shelf life.
  • Takeover by new strains takes time. Months, so far.
  • Maybe the new all-round anti-infection regime is working better than we think.  
  • Maybe the infection rate is the key dynamic in evolving new strains. (Not quite as much of a no-brainer as it looks; the viability of a virus isn’t a given. The new strains have to meet criteria to be super-infectious. Mutants aren’t viable by definition.)
  • Maybe new strains have moved to other vectors? Unlikely, but they could. After all, if they infect something else, we’re not looking for those infections.
  • Maybe there’s another viral dynamic in play. Influenza has staged a comeback; flu and COVID can swap genes.  So what if the next wave is some form of flu/COVID hybrid? If so – Does that mean the new hybrid takes on flu’s seasonal aspects?

What’s so important about any of this?

If there’s an evolutionary factor involved it’s a first time observation to be proven. It also underpins the entire pandemic dynamic. This might be a way of defusing viral pandemics, if a few things stack up.

What if simply mixing viruses produces a harmless or at least less dangerous and more predictable virus? This is extremely high-level biotech, but it’s an interesting line of logic.

Are we seeing a full-spectrum life cycle from make to break of a pandemic by a single type of virus? If so, it’s invaluable. It could be the Rosetta Stone for future dangerous outbreaks. There’s a lot to be gained here.

One way or another – An unexplained downturn in infections needs to be looked at. It can’t “just happen”. There must be a reason, and we need to know what. There’s no obvious reason. So excuse this article for being more speculation than opinion, but what else have we got?  

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Written By

Editor-at-Large based in Sydney, Australia.

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