There are tectonic plates that move faster than the Russian army. Russia has just “broken through” over the Donets River and taken another 500 metre long village near Isyum. In Isyum, a large number of Russian units have been keeping the topsoil company for months.
Russia has diligently been destroying Donetsk and Luhansk regions, supposedly its own territory, for those same months. The entire region is literally peppered with shell holes. There are hectares of farmland with craters that obviously never hit anything.
These guys literally could not hit a sunny day with a machine gun. Thousands of dud shells litter every area they fire at, to the level of monotony. Add to this retarded tactics and cretinous field operations, and it’s a picture of serene tranquillity. Much like a mass funeral.
The result so far could be much too politely described as “S***skrieg”, a vast constipated mess of hideous military obscenities at a huge cost in lives that goes nowhere. The level of total stuff-up is almost unparalleled in 5000 years of human warfare.
This catastrophic failure may be one of the many reasons for Russia’s constant harping on about nuclear threats. The nuclear rhetoric routinely goes up as the abysmal failures continue to get worse.
This IS nuclear blackmail.
The world doesn’t like it. Therefore, of course, the Russians continue to antagonize the world with nuclear threats on a daily basis. The pattern has repeated many times in the last four months, and we can look forward to more of the same.
However…
The question is now, finally, being raised about the possible benefits of nutcases with nukes. Russia’s worldview is as antiquated as its tactics. The world thought it was over this scenario. Obviously, it isn’t.
Do they really see national suicide as an option? Are they paranoid enough and desperate enough to use nukes? Normally, you’d have said no until 4 months ago. Until now, most people would have believed that a group of smug billionaires might have better things to do with their time.
Now, however, they’ve made such a dog’s breakfast of the war that it’s about the only saber they have left to rattle. Matters are not improved by the fact that whatever Russia has managed to convince itself it’s achieving in Ukraine can’t survive in the short term, let alone the long term.
No Russian acquisitions of Ukrainian territory will be accepted in any form. Russia can’t hold these regions with the dilapidated dismal excuse for a military it has in the area. Nor can they support these forces. Russia is currently engaging in “shadow mobilization” to try and get some numbers on the ground. That really is the story, and it’s also an admission of total failure.
Digging its own grave, Russian economics are already looking grim.
Nobody has ever had the slightest interest in attacking Russia, even on a bet. The West in particular has quite rightly seen Russia as a place to sell things, with or without the usual dodgy Russian politics. Now, somehow, the West has abandoned a large market as a result of the Ukraine war.
Russia’s friends, meanwhile, are happy to buy Russian exports at massive discounts. This is hardly a profitable exercise for Russia. The same volumes of exports would make a lot more money otherwise.
The rouble has been bouncing around like a Kinder Surprise in a hurricane. It just lost 17% due to dropping exports. That’s making things more than a bit more difficult. Even with a favorable exchange rate, where can Russia trade?
The arms trade, Russia’s other hobby, isn’t likely to benefit from Russian equipment being blown up like popcorn for months, either. In short, the desperation on the home front in Russia is likely to escalate a bit quicker than anticipated.
The question is whether this series of own goals will make Russia desperate enough to start playing with the fireworks. It might. Nobody expects rational responses from Russia on any subject these days. Hysteria is now the norm.
More to the point – Russia is proving itself quite unable to find its way out of every single one of its disasters. That’s not a good sign. Irrational behavior isn’t the usual precursor to rational behavior. The irrational usually become more irrational, not less.
Whether they do or they don’t simply go more insane, the West has another issue – The nuclear blackmail. Blackmail, if effective, tends to lead to more blackmail. That’s not likely to end well for anyone. At some point, the line must be drawn and enforced. The question is just when, not if, this happens.
With its usual brilliance, Russia has given itself no outs whatsoever. This has been an issue for some time. Lots of people have wondered if Russia can talk itself out of the mess, and obviously, they’re just getting further into the bog they created.
Put it this way:
- If things can get this bad in 4 months, how about 12 months?
- Russia would be better off losing than continuing an obviously futile war.
- Russia’s credibility is now as much of a ruin as anything it’s been shelling.
- The nuclear threat has built-in consequences.
- A self-nuked Russian economy isn’t likely to do at all well in any escalation of any kind, let alone a nuclear scenario.
So what’s it to be? Sanity or oblivion? Some might say it’s not that hard a choice.
_______________________________________________________
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
