The various tales of Chinese troops being recruited, fighting, and being captured in Ukraine are sending a lot of very mixed messages.
The “troops” look like an odd assortment. They don’t look like PLA regulars. They don’t look particularly fit, and there’s an obvious bandwidth of ages. One of them, seen with a lot of tattoos, looks more like a Triad member than military. They might have had some conscript-level training in China. That would at least explain how they got into nominal “Russian” forces.
Ukraine has also reported Chinese officers behind Russian lines with official sanction. That’s no great surprise, given the indirect official support from China. Observers are pretty normal in any war and can come from anywhere including non-participants.
There are many caveats to this simple-looking situation. These Chinese troops also don’t seem to be particularly effective. They’re not making any difference, much like the North Korean troops.
That’s important because PLA regular forces are very much better equipped than the Russians. They would make a big difference. It would therefore seem that China is not putting in much real effort with these troops. The blatant recruiting of troops on Chinese social media is another indicator of a seeming lack of official interest.
The recruitment process is an odd mix of money and ego appeals, like wanting “real men” to fight in Ukraine. Diplomatically and in terms of further recruitment, it’s been a disaster. According to the Kyiv Independent, the Chinese recruits are now posting very negative reviews of their experiences. That’s plausible, given the comments from so many Russian troops over the years.
Russian recruiting of foreigners is hardly an exact science. Years ago they were supposedly recruiting mercenary troops from Africa. These troops never appeared. The Wagner Group was all mercenaries. Chechen troops came and went. Wagner was decimated, and the Chechens simply went home.
China is a very different entity. China won’t even acknowledge the existence of these troops on any official level. This is apparently a rabble of useless nonentities at the official level.
There’s a big problem with that not-very-straightforward situation. If the name China is mentioned, Beijing will take immediate interest. The image of China is important. A small collection of nobodies isn’t a big issue of itself; it’s how it looks that matters.
It matters in a very different way. If the Western media deride Russia, it’s meaningless Western propaganda. If Chinese nationals expose Russia’s horrendous failures using a global scattering of other sources, it’s word of mouth to the Chinese public.
The question is now, “Why bother?” China has nothing to lose from this absurd situation. It has a lot to gain from perceptions of Russian weakness, however. China used to be a client state of the USSR. Proving that the boot is now on the other foot adds a lot of leverage and prestige. China looks good, Russia looks awful.
The Chinese could easily veto any recruitment of Chinese citizens. One phone call could do that anytime. Russia couldn’t argue or do anything about it.
We await developments. There’s no limit to what China could do with this bizarre situation.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
