China is having its ups and downs, but the Chinese space program doesn’t seem to be bothered. As America wallows in its politically polarized stupor, a Chinese Moon landing and perhaps a moon base will steer a whole new series of power plays.
First a bit of background. During the Cold War, Soviet superiority in space was considered a huge threat. This threat included technological superiority, better logistics, and obviously a possible military situation in space.
America won that race. It might not win this one. China’s domestic issues will come and go, perhaps a very bumpy ride, but China has huge amounts of capital and a command economy. If they could survive the Cultural Revolution, they could survive a few stupid economic situations.
America has usually shrugged off even the worst economic issues simply because of the huge mass of the American economy. That may not be the case this time. America’s many self-inflicted problems are now serious. Technologically, they’re maintaining a credible lead, despite politics.
It’s highly debatable whether the current crop of unemployable clowns in US politics even understand the issues created by a Chinese Moon landing. Maybe some do. The question is what, if anything, will they do to upgrade America’s space strategic position.
Since the space shuttle, American capacity in space has gone straight backward. The Americans do have a few major advantages, notably in space planes as far back as 2010 like the robot space plane X37B. Any subsequent generations of this tech are likely still way ahead.
China doesn’t seem to yet have this capacity in any form. That doesn’t mean they won’t have it in the future, though. The decades-ahead US lead has been shrinking a bit too much for too long. Many American space projects are notoriously mothballed or starved of funding and spend generations in unfunded hibernation.
Space and economics
The new space race has a lot of added weight, and it’s all economic. China wants an Earth-Moon economic zone by 2050. If that sounds fairly consistent with a Moon landing in 2030, it’s pretty obviously part of a general idea of the future.
America hasn’t even mentioned the future in any meaningful objective way for at least two generations. The nation that used to be the driver of the future now looks more like a lost game of Trivial Pursuit for ignoramuses in some very forgettable Third World country. There doesn’t seem to be any forward vision at all.
The Moon is also no longer somewhere to send a rocket and take pictures. It’s likely to be a major source of resources. Resources on the Moon are looking extremely valuable, including energy sources like Helium 3. Recently plenty of water was also discovered, a big asset to colonization and industrial processes. It’s a fair guess that China would like to dominate that market.
As a platform for future space missions, asteroid mining, and similar wholesome pursuits, the Moon is a must. This is critical strategy for space, and it’s not avoidable.
The big question is whether America wants to lose this race. The US can easily win, but decades of dufus-sitting have created another self-inflicted obstacle course.
__________________________________________________________
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
