What is even disturbing is that, contrary to their rhetoric, Ochuodho’s fellow dissidents like James Rege, Agostino Neto, MP George Oner, Otieno Dalmas, Sammy Wakiaga, Evans Kidero, and Ker Riaga Ogal clearly lack a strategy to successfully advance Luo conformist causes.
Such strong passions against Raila should not crystallize into anti-progressive movement, and later into a youth-inspired protest encampment in the belly of the beast called Kalausi or anti-Odingaism. In fact, such populist insurrections strike a chord when they say, in effect, that it is time for other Luo members to take back Luo leadership from Raila. Problem is, how fast will that leadership take form? Have the Luo groomed a successor? What backup strategies do we have? Will the resurgence ricochet and expose the Luo nation to greater marginalisation as it has been since the 60s?
But this spectacular collapse in Luo thinking is just the climax of an unyielding downhill slide for the Luo nation. There are many potential crises to Ochuodho’s subversion, but overwhelmingly one factor looms large: how vulnerable will be the Luo nation (and other politically relegated tribes such as the Kamba, Luo, Mijikenda) over the next 20 years Jubilee plans to hold onto power? Partisan antipathy has become deeper and more mystic — than at any point over last two decades. These trends manifest themselves in myriad ways, both in politics and in everyday life. Ochuodho wants us to believe that Raila is the cause of Luo collapse. Fortunately, that’s not what history records.
If Ochuodho’s thoughts are to prevail and his cabal of no-hopers manages to oust Raila, the next Luo kingmaker would still have to deal with strong opposition from Central Kenya. Over the next 20 years that Jubilee plans on staying in power, Luo gains would diminish as no Kikuyu dynamo would allow any Luo to progress into the stature of Raila Odinga. Each attempt would be blasted relentlessly. Consequently, the next generation of Luos, Luhyas, Kambas, Mijikendas (and many other politically relegated tribes) would still have to fight to survive.
Hence, his efforts to oust Raila are reminiscent of shutdown strategies where you plot to oust your kingmaker (or a queen in a game of chess) out of power and expose yourself and everything you own into decades of greater political vulnerability — very short-sighted move.
In fact, people like him who call for use of the Nyanza shutdown strategy to oust Raila will be shocked when it doesn’t win public support, except among the Kikuyu nation. Why should Ochuodho urge the Luo to eliminate their strategic voice for the expediency of unintelligent tactics used by Rege, Neto, Oner, Otieno Dalmas, Sammy Wakiaga, Kidero, and Ker Riaga Ogal?
Still, Ochuodho deserves praise for calling out the insurgents, particularly those tipping themselves as the potential replacements for Raila. My question is, do any of his candidates stand a chance to consolidate votes from across the 42 tribes? What are the implications? By dividing from the Raila, it is very likely that the Luo nation will remain a lone ranger. As a consequence, the friendly tribes in Coast, Western, Eastern, North Eastern, and even Nyanza would easily chip away from CORD to seek an alliance with Jubilee, or form another alliance. Clearly, Ochuodho is as short-sighted as he was in 2002 when I was still in High School.
Ochuodho also appears to forget that the antiquated Kenyan tribal-based political system today finds itself plagued by deeper partisan polarization, a rigidly divided parliament, superficial debate, and paralysis in spite of the new global challenges. The Luo are weighed down by choice-less elections, a mindless media, even a partisan Supreme Court. But, while the Luo are increasingly frustrated, they must not be tuned out causing the middle to collapse and allowing visionless members like Ochuodho to take over.
Unlike Raila, Ochuodho’s visions do not to adhere to the long-view. In fact, they are pegged to the election cycle. While Kenyans must celebrate (even grudgingly) the gains the nation has made through Odinga, it should be realised that Luos are part of these Kenyans.
Odinga is a national leader; a symbol of unity by all means. But, from Ochuodho’s commentaries, it can be held that he is more concerned with his friends’ re-election and ousting of Raila, than the long-term thinking that at the end of it all, it is the health of the Kenyan nation that must come first.
