Strategically, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has opened a Pandora’s box of possible issues. Afghanistan is centrally situated in one of the world’s most backward, least stable, regions. Nations around Afghanistan include Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Pakistan and Iran are right next door. China is directly connected to the east through the Wakhan Corridor.
Afghanistan economics – Funding the war against everyone
Afghanistan also has a wealth of minerals estimated by the USGS and US Department of Defense at around $900 billion in 2012. That’s quite a bankroll for the Taliban. Among these minerals are rare earths, important strategic resources over which China is trying to have a monopoly. The Chinese will be very interested in acquiring these materials, and a premium price won’t bother them at all.
This hefty “bank balance in waiting” could fund a lot of terrorism. Previously the Taliban were funded by Pakistan and the US during the Soviet invasion. This created the core structure for the present. The Taliban have always been funded by someone; religious zeal doesn’t pay for weapons. Many of them are effectively mercenaries; jihad is just a good working reason for being mercenaries.
International relations, Taliban style
The Taliban have also been sheltered very effectively outside Afghanistan in various safe zones in the region throughout the war. This very obvious fact was rarely mentioned at all, until Osama Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan. (“Border wars” has always been a euphemism for not wanting to fight other countries as well as the local war at the same time.)
The Taliban, therefore, have a lot of existing international connections. That’s an indication of their acquisition capacity and their extended global reach. They can have functional “business networks” in the region for buying and selling anything, recruiting, and attacking targets.
The larger jihad just got bigger
The Taliban have released thousands of AQ and ISIL prisoners and there will be more to come. These “reinforcements” aren’t huge numbers, but the overarching picture is of a reborn jihad, with all subscribers welcome.
These groups aren’t necessarily in easy relationships, but they’re not stupid enough to start bickering right now. IS and the Taliban have clashed before, but not for the cameras.
Afghanistan was and could be a staging ground and training zone for global terror. That’s one of the few surviving irrefutable points in the original US anti-terror strategy, and it may just be coming home to roost.
The Taliban aren’t the only power base in Afghanistan
The Taliban won’t be totally free of Afghan real politics, though. The traditional Afghan north/south dichotomy remains. The Pashtun in the south are major players. They helped the Taliban against the “invaders” (many Taliban are foreigners) and will expect proper consideration. The north is more fragmented but was able to stop them in the early post-Soviet era wars.
External interests will also want a cut of economic benefits. That could get a bit fractious, but there’s plenty of money to go around, too. It’s hardly likely to ever be clear who outside Afghanistan has an interest in what, but it’s a possible issue. Economic power is a major deal in this region, and it will make its presence felt in future Taliban initiatives.
Taliban Strategy 101
The Taliban, as has been said so often before, simply waited out the US. They play the long game. When Donald Trump, aka the world’s shortest and least efficient attention span, happened along, the Taliban’s long game became invisible. As usual with Trump, only the shortest term was under consideration. That was the disaster, and the Taliban took full advantage of it.
The Taliban know that. They also know that re-entering Afghanistan is quite possible. The long game approach is to say nothing and do a lot in total silence. That’s the way they’ve operated for decades; why change now?
The more likely scenario is that the Taliban operates at arm’s length in the future. They can support operations. They don’t have to get involved themselves or pick up excuses like Osama Bin Laden to attract direct scrutiny of what they do. Afghanistan could become the Arsenal of Terror, and nobody would really have much access to intelligence.
The nations around Afghanistan, particularly the weaker players, are at possible direct risk. None of these countries have instant support available. The Taliban could create a Caliphate out of the entire region to their north. That would be a global PR coup like few others. Russia may or may not intervene.
The Taliban and China
This is hardly a match made in heaven. It’s hard to imagine two countries less trusting of each other since Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. China’s treatment of the Muslim Uighurs is a potential instant issue. Chinese money, however, is plentiful, particularly for rare earths and other minerals.
China’s heavy-handed responses to practically anyone and anything is another factor. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are part of the Belt and Road project. China is unlikely to be too happy about a possible risk to the big picture as a result of Taliban presence in these areas. A military response would be China’s most likely first option under the present regime. There is clear potential for a clash, but both parties may opt for diplomacy and money rather than outright confrontation.
The Taliban and the West
The West can thank its venal political culture for its failure to recognize and manage these very straightforward situations. Western politics never admits mistakes until a few generations later. The usual reaction is slow to try to correct those mistakes and usually fumbles the moves. Human rights inevitably take a back seat or cling on to the bus as a nominal passenger.
The Taliban are hostile to the West. The West is hostile to the Taliban. There’s no common ground. Clashes are inevitable. Future 911s may or may not happen, but it’s unlikely this war will end any time soon.
Islamic State could become a Taliban client, bankrolled by the Taliban. That’s a typical long game option, and it’d work in southern Asia. Let someone else do the fighting, and just keep recruiting. Other groups throughout Asia could also be co-opted by Taliban money and resources.
The Taliban could act as an agent for Iran’s nuclear program, out of reach of sanctions and other measures. A nuclear-armed Taliban spreading joy around the world? It’s not impossible; just not currently very likely. Inevitable retaliation would also be a factor in moderating any such moves.
This is a strategic disaster. It’s total failure, exacerbated by very short-term political views. The hideous past of Afghanistan has created a monster; the future will have to deal with it.
