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On January 1, 2022, will Californians be asking, ‘Where’s the bacon?’

Crispy bacon strips Source - Didriks from Cambridge, MA/CC SA 2.0.
Crispy bacon strips Source - Didriks from Cambridge, MA/CC SA 2.0.

On January 1, 2022, a new law in California that changes animal welfare rules could make bacon harder to find and more expensive. At that time, the state will start enforcing the welfare proposition, which was approved by voters in 2018.

Business Insider reports that the Farm Animal Confinement Proposition requires more space for breeding pigs, egg-laying chickens, and veal calves. The idea behind the proposition is that animals should have more space to stretch their claws, hooves, or wings, something that advocates have been pushing for years.

The 2018 law, Proposition 12, which was overwhelmingly approved, seems to be fine with national veal and egg producers who are optimistic they can meet the new standards.

However, ABC News 10 is reporting that only 4.0 percent of hog operations say they will be able to comply. If this is the case, California could lose much of its pork supply. 

Farm located in Lafayette County, Wisconsin, applies nutrient management practices on cropland from the manure produced from the hog operation. Photo by Bob Nichols, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service/ Public Domain

This leaves a big question unanswered – Will the courts intervene in favor of the hog producers, or will the state temporarily allow non-compliant meat to be sold?

One side of the picture

In San Francisco, Jeannie Kim has managed to keep her breakfast-focused diner alive during the pandemic. However, she now fears that the restaurant could go under in months if the new rules make her top menu item – bacon – hard to get.

“Our No. 1 seller is bacon, eggs, and hash browns,” said Kim, who for 15 years has run SAMS American Eatery on Market Street. “It could be devastating for us.” 

Matt Sutton of the California Restaurant Association says it’s hard to see how the industry will be able to adequately supply California, seeing as the state consumes at least 15 percent of all pork produced in the U.S.every year.

“We are very concerned about the potential supply impacts and therefore cost increases,” he added.

Eggs, bacon, and pancakes at Tallula’s Tea Rooms, Brighton, England. Image – Jessica from Hove, United Kingdom/CC SA 2.0.

The hog industry’s side of the picture

In Alvord, Iowa, Dwight Mogler operates his family’s hog farm. He says his hog barns would need to be expanded to stay in compliance with California’s Proposition 12.

The changes he would have to make would cost him $3 million and allow room for 250 pigs in a space that now holds 300.

And as Matt Sutton also says, farmers are saying they haven’t complied because of the cost and because California hasn’t yet issued formal regulations on how the new standards will be administered and enforced.

The uncertainty surrounding California’s Proposition 12 mandating space requirements for all gestating hogs creates a costly and unknown path forward for U.S. hog producers and higher food costs for California consumers.

On April 14, the National Pork Producers Council and the American Farm Bureau Federation gave oral arguments before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, asking the court to strike down California’s Proposition 12 as unconstitutional under the dormant commerce clause. Proposition 12 imposes what they claim is arbitrary animal housing standards that reach far outside of California’s borders to farms across the country, and bans the sale of pork that does not meet those standards.

State of the art lagoon waste management system for a 900 head hog farm. The facility is completely automated and temperature-controlled. Source – Jeff Vanuga, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service/Public Domain.

Originally when Proposition 12 was contemplated, it was expected pork producers would have over two years after those regulations came out to figure out how to comply.

During a recent press call, Formica referenced a new RaboResearch report, “U.S. Pork Supply Chain Locked in Limbo as Producers Await Legal Ruling,” which shows less than 4% of the U.S. sow housing currently meets the new standards. RaboResearch estimates that compliant pork supplies could fall 50% short of California’s needs on January 1, 2022.

The National Hog Farmer reports that according to Christine McCracken, senior analyst of animal protein at Rabobank, ordinarily, an ‘average barn might cost $1,600 to $2,500 per sow, or $3 million to $4.5 million in total.”

Under California’s animal-confinement rules, however, some compliant barns are “averaging as much as $3,400 per sow,” with the decision to convert operations becoming increasingly difficult in light of recently “elevated building costs,” according to a friend of the court brief filed by state attorneys general to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in April this year.

Rabobank also cited the reluctance by hog producers to make the costly investments needed to comply with the new regulation while the legality of Proposition 12 has continued to be challenged in courts.

This is a story that needs to be followed because its outcome will affect a number of issues, including cultural preferences for pork as well as possibly driving up prices for consumers and disproportionately affecting low-income households.

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We are deeply saddened to announce the passing of our dear friend Karen Graham, who served as Editor-at-Large at Digital Journal. She was 78 years old. Karen's view of what is happening in our world was colored by her love of history and how the past influences events taking place today. Her belief in humankind's part in the care of the planet and our environment has led her to focus on the need for action in dealing with climate change. It was said by Geoffrey C. Ward, "Journalism is merely history's first draft." Everyone who writes about what is happening today is indeed, writing a small part of our history.

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