Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph.
The movement of the tropical disturbance does not bode well for the Northern Bahamas, where teams are still searching for hundreds of people missing since Hurricane Dorian struck. It’s “not the best news for an area that’s already been hardest hit by Hurricane Dorian, with heavy rain and very strong winds,” CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said early Thursday.
The NHC rates the chance of Invest 95L strengthening into a tropical depression or storm by Saturday at 70 percent. The system will bring heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian.
The NHC has scheduled an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 95L for late this afternoon. If aerial surveillance shows signs of further organization, the NHC may designate it as a “Potential Tropical Cyclone” later today. Doing so will allow the NHC to “issue watches and/or warnings before a tropical depression or storm actually forms, providing more lead time,” according to Weather.com.
Keep in mind – it is way too early to make a determination on the track of this system. However, a number of forecast model tracks continue to take Invest 95L into the eastern, then northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Numerical models suggest a track moving closer to Florida, the Bahamas and the Southeast coast by this weekend.
Another tropical wave, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is moving westward over the tropical Atlantic. The chance of any formation is 40 percent over the next five days.
