Record-hot ocean temperatures and the slower impacts of El Nino are increasing the likelihood of a nasty Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an updated hurricane season outlook Thursday morning that discusses a high likelihood of an above-average hurricane season.
According to the Washington Post, the midseason update reflects a dramatic shift in NOAA’s thinking as the agency joins several others in expecting a busy season.
In a previous forecast in May, NOAA predicted a 30 percent chance of an above-normal activity level, but the latest review suggests the likelihood is now 60 percent.
This means that NOAA is expecting there to be 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes. “There is a doubling of the chance of a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the U.S.,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Another important measurement called Accumulated Cyclone Energy — which takes into account the number of storms, how strong they are, and how long they last — is forecast to be double the normal for the year, NOAA said.
Already there have been five named storms: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, and an unnamed January storm that got upgraded to name status with the name “unnamed.” Normally there are only two named storms by this time of year, Rosencrans said. That was one factor in increasing the forecast, he said, according to The Associated Press.
Record North Atlantic Ocean temperatures
The continued record warm temperatures in the North Atlantic, which is connected to climate change, is a key factor in increasing the prediction because it is hotter and lasted longer than initially expected, Rosencrans said.
The warming covers a wide swath of the Atlantic Ocean, stretching almost one-third of the way across the Atlantic westward from the northwestern coast of Africa, an area considered to be the main storm development region.
Records going back to the late 1950s show a relentless rise in ocean temperatures with almost continuous increases going back to around 1985. Hot water is fuel for hurricanes, with the storms sucking up the heat energy from the water just like a person drinks water from a straw. The storm gets more humid, moist, and stronger.
Another factor that comes into play is the impact of the El Nino weather pattern. El Nino, a natural warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide, usually reduces storm activity because its crosswinds and sinking air tend to choke off storms. But even though El Nino is going strong in the Pacific, its effects in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic aren’t showing up yet.
Earlier this year meteorologists saw this hurricane season as a showdown in strength between the record hot water that increases storm activity and the dampening power of El Nino.
The hot water is winning, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy, who said NOAA’s forecast makes sense.
