The climate paper was published in the January 15 issue of the Science Bulletin (formerly Chinese Science Bulletin), the journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. It exposes the serious though elementary errors in the computer-generated general circulation models used by the IPPC in predicting the doubling of the Earth’s atmospheric CO2 levels.
According to the Science Bulletin, through the generosity of the Heartland Institute, the paper is open-access and may be viewed and downloaded here. (Note: this writer tried to open the website and got an advisory saying it was a “risky site.”)
According to the new study, the IPPC has predicted that doubling the CO2 levels would cause a rise in temperatures worldwide of 3.3 degrees Celsius. But the Science Bulletin paper says their new model predicts a rise of only 1.0 degree Celsius, or even less. They say the model, devised over a period of eight years, is so simple that a high school math teacher or undergraduate student can figure it out using a scientific calculator.
The paper, “Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model,” by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Willie Soon, David Legates and Matt Briggs, survived three rounds of tough peer reviews.
When the new model’s global-warming predictions was first tested against more complex models and real-world temperature changes, the new model was closer to the measured rate of global warming than all the other complex models. When the four researchers were satisfied their model was ready, they went looking for the answer to why all the “official” models concurred in “over-predicting” temperature change.
![Near-term global warming projections (brick-red region)
on[0.13 0.50] K decade-1 compared with ob...](https://www.digitaljournal.com/wp-content/uploads/primages/climate-2_1.jpg)
on[0.13, 0.50] K decade-1, compared with observations
(green region)that fall on [0.0, 0.11] K decade-1, and the
simple model’s 21stcentury warming projections (yellow
arrow), falling on 0.09 [0.06,0.12] K decade-1. Credit:
Science China Press
In 1990, the UN’s IPPC climate panel had “predicted with substantial confidence” the world would warm at twice the rate observed since then. When looking at the accompanying graph, you can see the IPPC’s grossly exaggerated predictions, seen in orange, as compared to the mean anomalies (dark blue) and trend (bright blue straight line) using two satellite and three ground-based temperature data sets. It was determined that the overall rate of global warming was less than 1.4 degrees Celsius per century, or about half the IPPC’s prediction in 1990.
The simple climate model is easy to understand, and clearly shows there has not been abrupt changes toward higher temperatures worldwide if the paper is to be believed. The researchers say the errors on the complex computer-generated models used by the IPPC and governments has led people to be needlessly concerned and guilty over man’s supposed role in causing global warming.
Note: A safe site to view the paper submitted to the Chinese Academy of Sciences is as follows: http://www.sciencenewsline.com/articles/2015012119140031.html
