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NDP surging in Canadian federal polls and leading election race

Led by Thomas Mulcair, the NDP now leads in three electorally important provinces of B.C at 54 percent, Ontario, 34 percent, and Quebec, 36 percent. In the poll the NDP had 36 percent support nationally to 28 percent each for the Liberals and Conservatives. The Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party based solely in Quebec, has five percent support , while Elizabeth May’s Green Party , managed only two percent of the vote.
The NDP has a quite significant lead but then much can change in four months. Back near the end of May an EKOS poll gave the NDP 29.6 per cent of the vote, versus 29.1 for Harper’s Conservatives, and 26.1 per cent for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

The situation looks particularly unpromising for the ruling Conservatives, as only nine percent have them as their second choice as against 23 percent for Liberals and 22 percent for the NDP. Among party leaders, Stephen Harper had the worst rating with only 30 percent of respondents thinking that he did a good job. Justin Trudeau had a 38 percent favourable rating with Thomas Mulcair of the NDP at 50 percent.The Forum poll surveyed 1,268 Canadians between June 22-23. Results are considered accurate within three percentage points 19 times out of 20. Forum Research president, Lorne Bozinoff, said: “The movement in the NDP’s favour is slow, but it’s gathering momentum. They’re firmly in first in Quebec and B.C. and at parity in Ontario, which are three of the four biggest provinces.”

In spite of having a young new leader, Justin Trudeau, the popularity of the Liberal party has fallen from a peak in July of 2014 when it was 10 points ahead of the Conservatives and the NDP came in third. Among several possible mistakes made by Trudeau are his support for the Conservative anti-terrorism bill, even without any amendments.

Another poll conducted for Global News by Ipsos has similar results to the Forum poll. The poll was of 2003 Canadians between June 19 to June 23. The poll shows the NDP has 35 per cent support. The Liberals had 29 per cent and the Conservatives 28. The Conservatives are still the most popular in Alberta in spite of the recent NDP win provincially. Often voters in Canada choose to support different parties provincially and federally, although until the recent NDP win, Alberta was always Conservative provincially as well. The Liberals lead in the Atlantic provinces.

Professor Barry Kay of Wilfrid Laurier University and his team at the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) did seat projections based upon a compilation of several polls. Leader of the NDP , Thomas Mulcair, would become Prime Minister, a historic first for the NDP. The NDP would win 130 seats in parliament with the Conservatives at 119 and the Liberals only 86. In Quebec, Mulcair’s home province, the NDP would take 60 of 78 seats with the separatist Bloc Quebecois winning only two. The parties are already running ads to support their cause.

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