Gitane is a thought leader in Digital Journal’s Insight Forum (become a member).
We are just days away from President-elect Trump’s second term in office. With the rhetoric ratcheting up by the day, it can be hard to separate fact from fiction or wishes from reality.
One thing is for sure: President-elect Trump will take office on January 20, 2025. Regardless of your views of him or his policies, the second Trump Administration is coming and it is best to be prepared.
Thinking you won’t be impacted is not an option. The magnitude of the Canada-U.S. relationship is such that even if you don’t do business with the U.S., you will still feel the effects of any trade wars or border closures.
The numbers on tariffs are sobering. Canada’s trade with the U.S. represents more than 75% of our exports, accounting for 20% of our GDP. A proposed 10% tariff on imports into the U.S., as analyzed by Scotiabank, could lead to a 3.6% decline in Canadian GDP.
So what can we do?
Be informed
Many people are saying that we survived the first Trump Administration and the second one “won’t be that bad.” Except that I expect this time to be completely different. Trump is prepared, he has a professional team around him and he is appointing people to key positions. He also controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, and inherits a conservative-dominated Supreme Court. Believe him when he says he plans to take action on day one, and don’t expect too many checks and balances on implementing his agenda. And also don’t assume that everything he is pushing for is wrong. Asking Canada to pull its own weight on defence and security matters is a reasonable request, even if the methods are unorthodox.
Be pragmatic
One of my best friends is a psychologist who likes to remind me that in certain situations, you can be right or you can be happy. Sometimes, the person you are dealing with isn’t interested in the facts. You can spend your time arguing every point until you are blue in the face, or you can focus on the few things that really matter and get to yes on those. Canada and the U.S. are neighbours, for better or for worse. The fact that the relationship is asymmetrical doesn’t mean that Canada doesn’t have any levers. We will find a way to work together, not only because we matter deeply to each other, but because we have to.
Be engaged
Like a garden, relationships need tending. It’s unfair to expect the federal government to “fix this.” Democracy is a sport that requires the active participation of its citizens. Engage with your elected officials, business associations, U.S. colleagues, and others in this sphere to advocate for Canada’s interests and support efforts to find solutions instead of simply criticizing from the sidelines.
The next few months are bound to be bumpy, but if we are smart and strategic, we will come out smarter, maybe a bit leaner, and definitely a lot stronger.
