America First is looking like it’s winning a race to nowhere with no other competitors. Nothing is being done well, particularly foreign relations, core administration, economics, and global intelligence.
I’ll try to keep this obituary short and simple.
The external image of the US is looking very sick. It’s gone from business as usual to god knows what. The diplomatic clangers are deafening. Demanding “compensation for US foreign policy” in Ukraine simply looks hypocritical, petty, and remarkably idiotic. The US shipped from stockpiles it had already manufactured and paid for years earlier. About 70% of the military aid was from existing stocks.
It’s a myopic and very dumb message to send to skeptical allies. Europe is looking to go it alone without the US. It may well have to do that. Other US allies can’t ignore this unwelcome mercenary image. America is isolating itself.
The overall image is also somehow getting dirtier. Siding with war criminals and other losers is a bad habit, and that seems to be getting worse. Again, there’s no future view. Russia in its current form could change overnight. Putin won’t be around forever, and nor will Trump.
Trade is already a major millstone in the US economy. If you add 25% to the cost of imports, where is that 25% coming from? Who pays for it? Not the exporters. The US has to pay internally somehow. It’s an incredibly bad move.
Far more serious and immediate is the broad domestic US environment. Hostility and backlash now growing exponentially in the US could easily destroy the Trump administration within two years. Less if the majorities in the House and Senate are compromised.
Health and social security are massive, suicidal, own goals. Big layoffs are never popular. Those are happening directly and indirectly as policies impact the economy.
America is maxed out. Credit cards are suffering. Prices were already insane. They’re going to get worse; the only question is how much worse.
Revenue is looking at best dubious. Commerce may tank simply due to the tariffs. Adding tax cuts to a failing revenue base will put America into lethal levels of debt.
Nor is the Union to be taken for granted. Federal relations with the blue states are truly lousy. Cooperation is virtually impossible. That alone could pull the plug. Economically, that’s not even debatable. The blue states are solvent and carrying the red states; none of the others except maybe Texas and Florida are anything like solvent. The revenue is nearly all blue, with a little purple.
Musk’s incoherent rampage through the civil service will end as badly as it began. They’re already having to retract some of the more obscene DOGE edicts. The Federal government clearly won’t be functioning well if at all.
Gutting the CIA is arguably the dumbest move ever made by any American government. I’m no fan, but the CIA is an incredibly important instrument of US power projection; it can’t be replaced by infantile know-nothing windbag bozos or ridiculous little political wannabes.
Nor is the management style looking good. Overall. Sending an email telling Federal employees to justify their existence has gone down badly. To start with, those jobs are created by legislation. That’s the justification. That Twitter-esque management style just doesn’t work and never has.
What’s the big picture?
An incompetent chronically mismanaged jigsaw puzzle being thrown out of a spacecraft, The bits and pieces will just float around in a vacuum until someone cleans them up.
it’s far worse long-term. America’s power isn’t and never has been just nukes. It’s economic, and that power is eroding badly. Diplomatic soft power is a major factor and that’s falling to bits. America’s ability to project power is disintegrating. Generating so much antagonism cannot work.
The other fact is that there are other major players now. This isn’t the 1960s when the competition was actually pretty mediocre. China can and will fill any gaps. At least you can do business with China without the tantrums.
America can’t and won’t monopolize AI. America can’t suddenly start manufacturing in anything less than a decade. The nation is in terrible shape, thanks largely to gouging the previous two generations and the next three.
Trump’s administration is effectively ushering in a Chinese century and putting an ignominious end to the American century.
Now the bright spot – Cleaning up these disasters will lead to massive improvements and upgrades. America may finally move into the 21st century.
This is rock bottom The future can only be better.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
