On Tuesday, November 15, the world’s population will reach 8 billion and in six months’ time, India’s population will surpass that of China.
According to the 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects by the United Nations (UN), on July 1, 2023, India will have 1.428 billion people. China, on the other hand, will have 1.425 billion people, according to the Business Standard.
On the day that India surpasses China in population, it will be mostly symbolic and perhaps psychological. China will still be the greater economic power, the country challenging the United States for full superpower status.
The Guardian suggests that the moment the baton is passed to India, it will plant a seed of doubt, hinting at possible limits to China’s relentless rise in the 21st century.
China’s population is expected to start shrinking next year. China’s total fertility rate of 1.16 in 2021 was below the 2.1 OECD standard for a stable population and among the lowest in the world.
India’s total fertility rate (TFR) currently stands at 2.0. This is slightly below the ideal replacement rate of 2.1. In other words, fewer Indians are being born than required to maintain the current population growth level.
“The presumption was that they were going to max out in population in 2028, but now it looks like they already have, and that’s a very big change,” said Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm.
The big challenge for China, say experts, is that China is still a middle-income country. Not only will the Chinese population shrink, but its age profile will also change. The bulge will no longer be in the working-age generation, but increasingly among elderly people.
This demographic is different in India, where the largest population age group is currently between 20 and 24, according to the Population Projection Report released in 2020 by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. By 2036, India’s largest population group will be in their late 30s.
“Human capital investment is still much lower in India than in many countries of the world. Just having a young population does not ensure a demographic dividend. The population has to be skilled and get a platform to work. Indian youngsters are highly talented even in challenging situations. Quality education with some incentives can do wonders,” Nandita Saikia, professor in Public Health and Mortality Studies at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), told Business Standard.
Changing demographics is a daunting problem
As you can see, both countries are facing some problems, similar, yet different in how they are handled.
In India, population demographics are indicating that good investments into the “health, nutrition, education, vocational training, skills and employability of the working age population, in addition to ensuring appropriate labour and migration policies and good governance, are needed,” Poonam Muttreja, executive director of Population Foundation of India said.
After 40 years, in 2063, India will touch the peak of its population at 1.69 billion. However, the world’s peak will be achieved in 2086 at 10.4 billion.
The number of Chinese citizens over 65 will more than double by 2050, from 150 million to 330 million. There will be fewer and fewer people whose labor will support more and more retirees.
“We expect the aging population to increase very rapidly. This is a very important situation facing China, different to 20 years ago,” said Shen Jianfa, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
The proportion of the population over the age of 65 is now about 13 percent but is set to rise sharply. A declining labor force faces an increasing burden of looking after the rising numbers of old folk.
“It will be very high for some years,” Shen said of the proportion of elderly in the population. “That’s why the country has to prepare for the coming aging.”
Here is an intereeting bit of information on the population demographics in the United States. According to the Census Bureau, by 2060, nearly one in four Americans will be 65 years and older, the number of 85-plus will triple, and the country will add a half million centenarians.
So, you could say that population dempgraphics does play a major role in the economic stability, investments, healthcare and overall growth of a country.
\
