Watching news clips of the huge crowds of desperate Afghans overrunning Kabul’s airport, trying to flee the repressive Taliban regime that has taken over their country, it occurred to me that what the world is witnessing in Afghanistan is but a small piece of a much bigger picture.
A quick look at history shows us that people have always migrated and for a number of different reasons, including being driven away due to conflict, violence, and climate change.
Historically, climate variability hastened migration following the decline of the Western Roman Empire in 476 AD and drought was at work during the downfall of the Mayan Empire (660 to 1000 AD).
More recently, the American Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 1980s drove many people to migrate to areas with more favorable climates.
Another issue is best described as finding work. and according to the World Economic Forum, work, a good job, along with job security is why most people leave their home countries.
There are an estimated 272 million international migrants around the world. And while that equals just 3.5 percent of the world’s population, it already surpasses some projections for 2050. Since 1970, the number of people living in a country other than where they were born has tripled.
The impacts of recent events on migration
Violent conflict in countries like Syria, Yemen, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, as well as internal conflicts in Venezuela, and Central America’s Northern Triangle, (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras), is an issue driving millions of people from their home countries.
If we add Afghanistan’s fleeing migrants to the mix, along with people fleeing Cuba and Haiti, which has been dealt a double whammy due to an earthquake and tropical storm, it is easy to see how the dynamics are changing worldwide.
But wait… We also have to add a rapidly changing climate and the COVID-19 pandemic to all the other issues forcing people to leave their own countries, hoping to find a safer place to live.
Severe flooding, mudslides, extreme heatwaves, and enormous wildfires have taken the lives of thousands of people around the globe and destroyed cities, towns, and whole regions, leaving some areas unfit to live in.
And the coronavirus pandemic on top of everything else has infected 211,848,325 people worldwide and led to the death of 4,433,036 people.
Where will the Afghan refugees end up?
The United States is the primary destination for most migrants, though as a proportion of its population, the United Arab Emirates has the largest migrant contingent.
Afghan refugees are currently the third-largest group, behind Venezuelan and Syrian refugees. There are also over one million internally displaced Afghans within the country. Many Afghans have fled to Pakistan.
Afghans have also been seeking asylum in Iran as a means to then go through Turkey and then up into Europe. The rapid takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban has left many fearing for their lives and seeking to escape the country, often by any means necessary, and Turkey will welcome them.
Greece, which was on the frontline of the migrant crisis in 2015 when more than a million people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East crossed from Turkey into the EU, has said it may send back any Afghans that arrive illegally through the country.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is concerned that a sharp increase in people leaving Afghanistan could pose a serious problem. So, according to the BBC, Greece has installed a 25-mile (40 kilometers) long fence on its border with Turkey.
“We cannot wait, passively, for the possible impact,” Greece’s Citizens’ Protection Minister Michalis Chrisochoidis said on a visit to the region of Evros on Friday. “Our borders will remain inviolable.”
The U.S. is taking thousands of Afghans in, as well as Canada. Australia says it will take in some, and even New Zealand has identified about 200 Afghans they will take in.
