The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued its final El Nino Advisory on Thursday, June 9, 2016, saying it has ended 15 months after its birth in March 2015.
“There’s nothing left,” NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center deputy director Mike Halpert said. “Stick a fork in it, it’s done.”
Halpert added that the monstrous El Nino triggered droughts in parts of Africa and India and played a role in the record number of tropical cyclones seen in the Pacific. El Nino also added to man-made global warming, with the Earth having 12 straight record hot months, reports CTV News Canada.
As for records, “Godzilla” will go down in the books as one of the three strongest El Nino’s on record, along with the El Nino’s of 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. It was thought this El Nino would help with California’s four-year drought, but conditions were so bad that the rainfall the state did receive just wasn’t enough to help in the long term.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in what is called “neutral conditions.” This is part of the cycle of the irregularly periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The ENSO affects much of the tropic and subtropic regions of the world.
The warming phase of ENSO is known as El Nino, and the cooling phase is called La Nina. When there are extremes of this climate pattern’s oscillation, as we have seen with this last El Nino, we end up with extreme weather conditions like the floods and droughts we have been experiencing.
So, while we are now in the neutral phase of ENSO, the big question on everyone’s mind is, “What happens next?” It stands to reason that we should be expecting the cooling phase, La Nina to form, but at this time, there is only a 50 percent chance of that happening by the end of this summer says NOAA. The odds of a La Nina by the end of fall go up to 75 percent.
La Nina weather conditions
Back in April this year, Slate reported that there was very strong evidence a “potentially strong La Nina” would be forming in the second half of 2016. Basically, now that ENSO is in a neutral phase, it won’t remain as such because the conditions are unsustainable. This means the trade winds will return, promoting an upwelling of cooler ocean water (La Nina) that will affect weather conditions worldwide.
La Nina will cause a lessening of cyclone-shredding wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean, actually helping in the formation of hurricanes. So we can expect more of them this hurricane season. (We have already seen three tropical storms this year).
Generally, La Nina doesn’t affect summer temperature or rain in the United States. The U.S. usually sees drier-than-normal conditions in the Southwest and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. In the winter, parts of Australia and Indonesia will see lots of rain, while cooler temperatures will be seen in parts of Africa, Asia, South America and Canada.
