Cristobal sets record as third earliest storm of the season

In its 4:00 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center said that Tropical Storm Cristobal is currently moving toward southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche, The storm is about 140 miles (230 kilometers) west southwest of Campeche, Mexico.

Cristobal has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and its present movement is to the south at close to 3 mph (6 kph). The minimum central pressure is 1004 MB or 29.65 inches.

As of 4:00 p.m. June 2, 2020.

NHC

The storm is expected to take a turn to the southeast and east tonight and Wednesday – followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, after the center of Cristobal moves inland over Eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, it is expected to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

There may be some increase in strength – at least until Cristobal moves over land in Mexico. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Cristobal is expected to dump Ten to 20 inches of rain across the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.

This “looping movement” adds to the complexity of the forecast. “Given the spread in (computer model) guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the NHC forecast at days 4-5,” the NHC said, according to NOLA.com.

TROPICAL UPDATE: As of 5 pm EDT, #TropicalStorm #Cristobal continues to spin over the #BayofCampeche, producing heavy rain and #lightning as seen here on @NOAA's #GOES16 #GLM instrument. Life-threatening #flooding is possible for parts of #Mexico. More: pic.twitter.com/3YAQfdWXw0

— NOAA Satellites – Public Affairs (@NOAASatellitePA) June 2, 2020

CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller says, “The long-term forecast is very complex due to potential interactions with land and strong winds that are expected to influence the vortex.”

“Model forecasts display a myriad of possibilities ranging from the storm dying over the rough terrain of southern Mexico, to a second circulation forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico that could become Tropical Storm Dolly.”

In May, FEMA advised people to start preparing for hurricane season and warned that regular shelters may not be open this year due to COVID-19. People are also advised to download the FEMA mobile app for disaster resources, weather alerts, and safety tips. It is available in English and Spanish.