The agency released modeling data this morning with different possible scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading, reports the Montreal Gazette.
Based on the two most likely scenarios, the number of positive diagnoses of COVID-19 could range from 934,000 to 1.9 million. There have been 18,447 positive diagnoses so far. Additionally, health officials expect 500 to 700 people in Canada to die from the coronavirus by April 16.
“Models are not a crystal ball,” Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, told a news briefing, saying it was too early to predict when the peak would be. “While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada’s modeling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic,” she said. “We cannot prevent every death but we must prevent all the deaths that we can.”
The current pandemic parameters Canadians are living under right now are considered to be strong controls. This includes social distancing, the quarantine of travelers, and “stay at home” practices, according to CTV News Canada.
Federal health officials also caution that without a treatment or vaccine for the coronavirus, there may be a wave of epidemic controls required, spanning months. They add that another issue that needs to be factored in is the increase in healthcare capacity required.
This includes stocking up on personal protective equipment and ventilators for the treatment of patients, as well as having enough personnel able to respond to the surge of patients.
Dr. Tam said noted that community transmission in Canada started later than in other countries, although the per capita testing rate in Canada is higher than in most countries, and the increase in the total number of cases has been slower here than in other nations.
