Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecast is not giving farmers very much to look forward to as the worst drought in modern times has taken hold. “An unusually warm winter followed by what is expected to be a warmer-than-average spring would mean an intensification of the existing drought conditions across parts of eastern Australia”, the bureau’s outlook report said.
The forecast is particularly bad for New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state and accounting for a quarter of the country’s agricultural output by value. NSW declared its earliest total fire bans on record on Wednesday, an ominous sign of things to come.
As of 8pm: All fires across #NSW are now at Advice. Firefighters will continue to work on the 79 fires burning of which 36 are yet to be contained. More favourable conditions tomorrow before a return of warm and windy weather on Saturday. #NSWRFS @FRNSW @OEHmedia pic.twitter.com/kqS9789BrL
— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) August 16, 2018
Bushfire season typically begins in New South Wales in October and will run until March. But with the unseasonably dry weather, with little to no precipitation, the fire risk has grown. Dr. Owen Price, a senior researcher at the University of Wollongong’s Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, said, “If we don’t get any good rain, then the fire season is essentially starting now.”
The latest @BOM_au climate outlook released today suggests the dry and warm conditions will continue for the next few months. Another worrying sign for the bush fire season, and another reason you need to get ready now. #nswrfs #nswfires @BOM_NSW pic.twitter.com/EdtID862SR
— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) August 16, 2018
And this makes it rough simply because the end of the last official bushfire season was just three months ago. BOM notes that the period January through July 2018 was the warmest in NSW since 1910. Rob Rogers, deputy commissioner of the NSW Rural Fire Service links the unusual early fire season to something bigger.
These “unseasonably warm temperatures” can be linked with the deadly heatwaves in Greece and North America. “It’s fair to say that the climate is changing and longer fire seasons are something we’re starting to experience,” he adds.
At 5:30pm there's 84 bush and grass fires in NSW – 50 uncontained. Extremely dry conditions combined with strong winds have made conditions tough for firefighters and residents. Great work by firefighters from #NSWRFS, @FRNSW, NPWS and Forestry. #nswfires pic.twitter.com/JfUXQEItQi
— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) August 15, 2018
On Thursday, according to Reuters, 650 firefighters, along with 40 aircraft, were battling 81 grass and bushfires, of which 38 remained out of control. While none of the fires posed threats to people or property, it was still an unusual event for the Australian winter.
New South Wales Rural Fire Service Inspector Ben Shepherd told Reuters, “There is no real positive outlook at the moment, especially when you do look at the three-month temperature and rainfall outlook.”
