With emissions at a record level already, the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could be larger than what was seen in 2018 due to several factors, according to the UK’s Met Office, an agency similar to NOAA in the U.S.
“The year-on-year increase of CO2 is getting steadily bigger as it has done throughout the whole of the 20th century,” the Met Office’s Dr. Chris Jones told BBC News. “What we are seeing for next year will be one of the biggest on record and it will certainly lead to the highest concentration of CO2.”
The Met’s forecast is based on a combination of several factors – including rising anthropogenic emissions and a relative reduction in the uptake of carbon-dioxide by ecosystems due to tropical climate variability. Another factor is the Southern Pacific Ocean, which is expected to be warmer than usual this year.
1/2 Tomorrow on #r4today: The Met Office is predicting a dramatic rise in concentrations of atmospheric CO2 in 2019 – the result of increasing emissions and reduced take up of carbon by heat-stressed plants pic.twitter.com/WPvvFqMUYx
— Tom Feilden (@BBCTomFeilden) January 24, 2019
This weather pattern will lead to hotter and drier conditions that make it more difficult for plants to grow and absorb excess carbon dioxide released with the burning of fossil fuels.
The research observatory at Mauna Loa in Hawaii has been continuously monitoring atmospheric CO2 content since 1958, along with collecting data on the chemical composition of the atmosphere. On January 23, 2019, the atmospheric CO2 level was 410.47 parts per million (ppm). One year ago, on January 23, 2018, the CO2 level was 408.85 ppm.
“The warm sea surface conditions now will continue over the next few months and that will lead into the vegetation response,” said Dr. Chris Jones from the Met Office. “Around the world, this heat has different impacts. In some places, it’s hotter and drier and you get more forest fires. In a tropical rainforest, for instance, you reduce the natural growth of the vegetation.”
410.25 parts per million (ppm) #CO2 in the atmosphere on January 25, 2019 #Scripps #UCSD Mauna Loa data & graphic: pic.twitter.com/2nBDWDp2s7
— CO2 earth (@CO2_earth) January 26, 2019
It is these limits on the ability of the oceans and plants to absorb carbon dioxide that accounted for the rise in concentrations this year of 2.75 ppm, which is higher than the 2018 level. The Met Office is forecasting the mean atmospheric CO2 level to rise above 411.3 ppm in 2019.
The monthly average will peak in May 2019 at around 414.7 parts per million and lower to 408.1 parts per million in September 2019 before rising again at the end of the year.
Professor Richard Betts of the Met Office Hadley Center said, “Looking at the monthly figures, it’s as if you can see the planet ‘breathing’ as the levels of carbon dioxide fall and rise with seasonal cycle of plant growth and decay in the northern hemisphere. But each year’s CO2 is higher than the last, and this will keep happening until humans stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere.”
