NOAA is predicting a 40 percent chance of near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year, depending on competing forces.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and goes through November 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is predicting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
The upcoming hurricane season is looking sort of average, and that is based on coming off three years of a long-lasting La Nina weather pattern. But with the expected return and influence of an El Nino weather pattern, there is a caveat.
The Verge is reporting the caveat is that there’s more uncertainty in this year’s seasonal forecast than normal because of unusually warm temperatures in the Atlantic.
While El Nino generally ushers in a milder storm season in the Atlantic, forecasters now have to contend with record ocean heat bubbling up in the Atlantic, providing fuel for tropical storms to strengthen.
“It’s definitely kind of a rare setup for this year. That’s why our probabilities are not 60% or 70%,” NOAA lead hurricane seasonal forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said at a Thursday news conference, according to the Associated Press. “There’s a lot of uncertainty this year.”
“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell.
