The world could breach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, fueled by climate change and the return of El Nino.
After three years of a La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally lowers global temperatures slightly, the world is awaiting the return of El Nino, the warmer counterpart, in a few months.
During the El Nino phase, winds blowing west along the equator slow down, and warm water is pushed east, creating warmer surface ocean temperatures.
“El Nino is normally associated with record-breaking temperatures at the global level. Whether this will happen in 2023 or 2024 is yet known, but it is, I think, more likely than not,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Climate models suggest a return to El Nino conditions in the late boreal summer, and the possibility of a strong El Nino developing towards the end of the year, Buontempo said.
The year 2016 was the world’s hottest year on record so far, and it coincided with a very strong El Nino phase. Even still, climate change has fueled quite a few record-breaking months – even without El Nino’s help.
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, last year, Europe experienced its hottest summer and the second warmest year on record, according to the 2022 edition of the Copernicus Climate Change Service’s (C3S*) European State of the Climate (ESOTC) report.
Additionally, March 2023 was jointly the second warmest March globally. Antarctic sea ice extent was the second lowest for March at 28 percent below average; Arctic sea ice extent was 4 percent below average, ranking joint 4th lowest for March in the satellite data record.
Summing all the data up in a neat little pile – The last eight years were the world’s eight hottest on record – reflecting the longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions, according to Reuters.
Record-breaking temperatures throughout Asia
While the world waits for the start of El Nino, temperature records are being shattered in countries across Asia as a brutal April heat wave continues to grip large portions of the continent, with little relief in sight.
In Southeast Asia, some countries posted their highest-ever recorded temperatures this week, while searing heat in the Indian subcontinent has killed more than a dozen people.
Maximiliano Herrera, a climatologist and weather historian, described the unusually high temperatures as the “worst April heatwave in Asian history,” The Guardian reported.
In China, local media reported that record temperatures for April had been observed in many locations, including Chengdu, Zhejiang, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other Yangtze River delta region areas.
India has become particularly vulnerable to extreme heat in recent years, and experts fear this year could be even worse. According to India’s Meteorological Department, 48 weather stations recorded temperatures over 42°C (108°F) on Tuesday, with the highest at 44.2°C in the eastern state of Odisha.
In western Maharashtra state, at least 13 people died from heatstroke after attending a state award ceremony on Sunday. More than 1 million people attended the event in Navi Mumbai and between 50 to 60 people were hospitalized, according to a city police official.
The world’s average global temperature is now 1.2C higher than in pre-industrial times, Copernicus said.
Meanwhile, the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions – while pledging to eventually slash their net emissions to zero, are still allowing those emissions to rise.
