Because Windows 10 is available on so many different kinds of devices, Microsoft predicted that 1 billion PCs, tablets, laptops, phones, Xbox consoles, HoloLens headsets and smart Internet of Things products would be running a form of the OS by 2018. Microsoft first announced its estimate at its Build developers conference last year, publicly stating that it saw the goal as feasible.
Windows 10 has now been around for just shy of a year. Halfway to the target’s deadline, the operating system is being used on only 350 million devices, a figure that on its own would be very respectable. It isn’t at all close to the 1 billion aim though. Even if adoption continues at its current rate over the next 12 months, Microsoft would still have just 700 million users by this time next year.
Microsoft confirmed to ZDNet today that it isn’t going to meet the deadline. It cited its smartphone hardware business as the reason for the revised projections. It now expects Windows 10 to reach 1 billion devices eventually but not before mid-2018.
“Windows 10 is off to the hottest start in history with over 350m monthly active devices, with record customer satisfaction and engagement,” Microsoft said in a statement to ZDNet. “We’re pleased with our progress to date, but due to the focusing our phone hardware business, it will take longer than FY18 for us to reach our goal of 1bn monthly active devices. In the year ahead, we are excited about usage growth coming from commercial deployments and new devices – and increasing customer delight with Windows.”
Microsoft has always said that the majority of the 1 billion devices will be comprised of PCs and tablets. Smartphones appear to have had even less of an impact than anticipated though. Combined with continuing consumer resistance to PC upgrades from select groups, Windows 10 has failed to gain the traction Microsoft expected.
Microsoft is slowly being forced into admitting that Windows 10 Mobile isn’t the platform to transform the company’s smartphone outlook. Microsoft is no longer aiming its Lumia devices directly at consumers and has dramatically scaled down its mobile investments with waves of job cuts.
The roll-out of Windows 10 Mobile to older devices earlier this year was poorly organised and delayed by months, leaving existing users increasingly frustrated. When it did arrive, Microsoft excluded devices it had previously said would receive the update, further angering customers.
Microsoft executives have publicly commented that now isn’t the time for Microsoft to concentrate on mobile. It is deliberately putting Windows 10 Mobile at the bottom of the pile for the next year, choosing to push Windows 10 more aggressively to enterprises instead. The loss-leading phone business will be emphasised in the future.
Later this month, Microsoft will end the free Windows 10 upgrade offer for Windows 7 and 8.1 users. This move is unlikely to affect general adoption as most people who want to upgrade have already done so. With existing consumers upgraded, Microsoft will be reliant on new device sales, enterprise purchases and the Internet of Things to drive usage increases.
