Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed in the Gulf of Mexico as of Sunday morning, taking aim at coastal Texas. Nicholas is expected to bring flooding downpours from northeastern Mexico to Louisiana, with the most significant flooding focused on the Houston, Texas area.
At the 10:00 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, newly formed Nicholas was about 405 miles (650 kilometers) south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River. The storm is moving to the north-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).
Nicholas is packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast over the next day or so.
On the forecast track, Nicholas will pass near to or offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Monday evening. Nicholas is then expected to approach the south or central coast of Texas late Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for:
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
- Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- North of Port Aransas to High Island, Texas
Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, Texas
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Nicholas. Nicholas is now the 14th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season.
“As Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will continue to drift towards the north, remaining a tropical storm through Monday,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
Wind shear remains an inhibiting factor for Nicholas to strengthen into a hurricane, according to Miller. “The shear is expected to lessen a bit tomorrow, which may allow the system to continue to strengthen from a weak tropical storm into a strong tropical storm,” added Miller.
“Because of the limited amount of time the system is likely to spend over warm Gulf of Mexico waters, it is unlikely for Tropical Storm Nicholas to become too strong, and thus it is not expected to reach hurricane strength,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson.
“Some rain from Nicholas will reach coastal Texas on Sunday afternoon, well ahead of the storm, with the storm itself impacting southeastern Texas on Monday night into Tuesday,” said Miller.
Rain could be an extreme event. While New Orleans, which was greatly impacted by Ida, can expect only 1 to 2 inches of rain total, Houston is set to receive 8 to 12 inches, with areas from Galveston to Port Arthur getting the heaviest amounts.
The NHC is also monitoring four other disturbances in the Atlantic. One, near the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to spawn a few thunderstorms, however cooler ocean temperatures do not favor further development.
Three other areas of non-tropical development off the coast of Africa are also being watched. None of these systems shows signs of much further development at this time, but all this could change.
A further update on Nicholas is expected later this afternoon.
