COVID-19 numbers are on the rise across the U.S. according to the latest CDC data, and the risks of a summer wave are being compounded by new vaccine restrictions from the Trump administration, especially with a non-scientist like Robert F Kennedy Jr. leading the way. Kennedy has a history of straying from the truth and spreading incorrect health information.
Hesitancy in implementing appropriate measures is coupled with the emergence of more transmissible variants for 2025. The current new variant of concern is NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus). This variant was first detected in March 2025, it’s known for causing a razor-like sore throat and spreading rapidly across 24–25 states.
Seasons and mutations
There is also a seasonal variation, where COVID-19 peaks in the summer months in the U.S. In context, hot weather, human behaviour patterns, and an easily mutating virus create the perfect recipe for COVID’s peak in the summer. Other predominant variants are XFG and LP.8.1, each of which is derived from the Omicron strains (which themselves mutated from the first COVID-19 virus, B.1.1.529).
While some cases are mild for those with healthy immune systems, long COVID-19 continues to affect people even after mild infections, with lingering symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, and shortness of breath.
Looking into these issues for Digital Journal is leading infectious disease and public health expert Dr. Tyler B. Evans.
Dr. Evans also served as the first Chief Medical Officer for NYC during the first COVID-19 surge in 2020, overseeing COVID-19 clinical operations for the Office of Emergency Management. Evans has also been on the front lines of major disease outbreaks (including two Ebola outbreaks) around the globe. Outside the U.S., he has worked in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East with organisations like Doctors without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres) and Partners in Health. Evans was also the first Chief Medical Officer for New York City and the author of the forthcoming book Pandemics, Poverty, and Politics: Decoding the Social and Political Drivers of Pandemics from Plague to COVID-19.
One of the measures of the spread of a pathogen is the Rt number (distinct from the Ro number – the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection). This is the effective reproduction number [t represents “time”], referring to the number of cases generated in the current state of a population.
Rt > 1 indicates that infections are growing because, on average, each infected person is causing more than one new infection while Rt < 1 indicates that infections are declining. Currently, the Rt is growing.
Evans begins his analysis assessing the Rt number: “COVID-19 activity is clearly on the rise again, as seen in CDC’s Rt estimates. This increase is likely due to a combination of waning immunity, indoor congregation, and the natural evolution of the virus.”
Prepare, don’t panic
As to what these means for potential infection rates, Evans’ assessment is: “While we’re in a much better place than in 2020, rising transmission still poses a risk to those with underlying conditions or limited access to care. Concern should lead to preparedness, but not panic. That means making sure we’re protecting our most vulnerable, communicating clearly, and staying ahead with testing and vaccines.”
Further on the current trend, Evabns understands: “Rt values hovering around 1 don’t necessarily mean transmission is stable. It may simply reflect limited or delayed data, especially in states with lower population density or fewer emergency department visits. We shouldn’t mistake ‘unchanged’ for ‘out of the woods.’ It’s important to continue local surveillance and ensure underserved communities in these areas aren’t overlooked.”
New vaccine?
In terms of reacting and controlling the current rise in COVID-19 cases, Evans advises: “We need to stay ahead of the virus with updated vaccines that target new variants, but access and public confidence are just as critical. A more effective vaccine won’t help if the people who need it most can’t get to it, don’t trust it, or aren’t being engaged in the right way.”
This means focusing on the local: “Lessons from past rollouts show that community-level strategies, particularly in places hardest hit, make the biggest difference.”
In addition, more drastic meaures may be required, notes Evans: “Mitigation should match the moment. Broad mandates may not be necessary right now, but we shouldn’t shy away from common-sense measures in higher-risk settings, like hospitals, nursing homes, and public transit during surges. We know masks work, especially when layered with vaccination. The key is flexibility, clear guidance, and empowering people to make informed choices based on local trends.”
