For the first time ever, global temperatures are likely to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) of warming within the next five years.
That is the finding from the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) latest report: the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update published today.
The report also cites there is a two-in-three chance that the global average temperature in at least one of the next five years (2023-2027) will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. according to the Met Office.
With a 66 percent chance of temporarily reaching 1.5C by 2027, “it’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5C,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre.
The possibility of breaching the critical temperature limit will be due to heat-trapping gasses from fossil fuels and a looming El Niño. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.
“The El Niño “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory”, said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a press statement, Reuters is reporting.
Breaching 1.5 degrees may only be temporary, the WMO said. But it would mean the world has crossed a critical climate threshold, a signal of how quickly climate change is accelerating.
As temperatures continue to surge, the WMO also found a 98 percent chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, surpassing 2016 which saw global temperature impacted by about 1.3C (2.3F) of warming.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said the Met Office’s Dr Leon Hermanson.
