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Technology In 2002

There are Better Times Around the Corner

The year 2001 was a year that many in the technology industry will be happy to forget as the dot-com stock bubble officially burst. The victims included millions of now unemployed technology workers and the ferocious momentum in the industry to which many have become accustomed.

But for technology consumers, 2001 was still full of excitement. Microsoft introduced its long-awaited Windows XP operating system, high-speed Internet access became a reality for more people, wireless devices of all shapes and sizes made organizing our lives and communicating easier, not to mention the exciting advances in digital imaging that made computer-driven cameras the hot peripheral of the year.

So where will the industry go now? The answer is, very likely, to some exciting places – with the help of advances in technology already with us. Here’s an overview of some hot technologies that you can look forward to in 2002.

Faster Internet Connections. The spread of broadband Internet connections – those utilizing cable and DSL technologies, for example – has not lived up to expectations. In part, this is because of the technical difficulties that telephone companies have had in bringing DSL to consumers and the financial difficulties faced by many technology companies.

But the demand among consumers for fast-lane Internet access has not waned. Expect the barriers to broadband Internet connectivity to continue to come down in 2002.

Flat is in. The major shift to occur in desktop PC technology in 2002 will be in the area of flat-panel displays. Already, small flat-panel monitors are being packaged with certain computers from major manufacturers such as Dell, Compaq and Gateway.

But the flat panels you’ll receive in package deals are smallish 15-inch models. They’re fine, but in terms of size, they are a step backwards. Expect to see 17-inch LCD flat-panel displays priced at $1,000 or less. These will quickly become the preferred size and will take over the market in the coming year.

And what does that mean for traditional cathode ray tube monitors? Lower prices.

Voice-over IP. Voice-over IP may sound like techno babble, but it’s simply the computer industry’s way of saying that soon, you’ll be able to use the Internet to transfer your voice as well as data. Of course, to a limited extent, you can already do that now with the Internet telephone programs on the market, such as Net2Phone (www.net2phone.com).

But businesses are looking at voice-over IP in a serious way, and the technology is being brought to the home desktop as well. That’s in part thanks to Microsoft’s decision to bundle voice-over IP technology in Windows XP, released late in 2001.

With the version of Microsoft Messenger bundled with Windows XP, users can make telephone calls from their PC to another traditional telephone. Expect advances in voice over IP to make the videophone – a technology we’ve been hearing about since the ’70s – closer to reality.

Cheap Memory. Towards the end of 2001, we saw hard drive and memory prices drop to levels never before seen. Today, you can buy 1GB of SDRAM for your PC for about $120, and a 120GB hard drive sells for under $300. It no longer makes economical sense to buy “just enough” storage, either in the form of hard disk space or memory.

Soon, you’ll see a proliferation of hard drives that hold a whopping 160GB of data.

Computer memory will also see advances, particularly in the area of flash memory, which is used by all kinds of portable devices, including digital cameras. Expect to see flash memory cards with capacities of 1GB.

No Major PC Changes. Many expect to see a levelling off in the PC industry in 2002. This means that PC prices won’t drop much more, at least in the short term. The reason is that the industry is finally selling off excess inventory, and demand from consumers and businesses is expected to increase slowly.

So, if you’ve been putting off buying a PC, now is the time to jump. Prices for systems will stabilize, if not rise a bit, and you can get tremendous value for your computer budget right now.

In terms of technological advances, expect no earth-shattering advances that will make you feel as though you have purchased obsolete technology two months after you get your PC home.

USB competes with FireWire. Computer peripherals such as printers, digital cameras and scanners are all the rage. How best to connect them to your PC is the question. FireWire gained popularity in 2001 for its ability to connect data-intensive peripherals, such as digital cameras and digital video equipment, with acceptable speed. FireWire offers substantial transfer speed improvements over USB, which is slow.

But USB 2.0 will be built into new PCs, and USB 2.0 add-in cards will be widely available to users of existing PCs. USB 2.0 will transfer data at 480 megabits per second (Mbps), while FireWire tops out at 400Mbps.

Ultimately, USB is likely to pose a serious threat to the challenge of FireWire, primarily because of the plethora of USB peripherals already on the market.

Handwriting, Voice Emerge. Microsoft is ready. Are you? Microsoft has built speech recognition into its Office XP suite of productivity applications, and Windows XP comes bundled with a speech engine that makes using voice recognition more feasible than at any time in the past. In addition, Microsoft has readied handwriting recognition in Windows XP. This should be the year that you start exploring alternative modes of data entry.

In all, 2002 may not have in store any earth-shattering advances in PC technology. But for many, a return to a more normal growth curve in the industry will be a good sign that we’re still in the beginning stages of the PC revolution.

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