The world does have enough rare earth minerals and other critical raw materials to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy to produce electricity to counter climate change.
CTV News Canada reports that some people are concerned that there won’t be enough key minerals to make the decarbonization switch, however, a new study counters concerns about the supply of such minerals.
The new study, published in Science Direct on January 27, 2023, concludes that geologic reserves of materials are sufficient to meet all projected future demands, and emissions impacts of material production are non-negligible but limited in magnitude.
Rare Earth minerals are not so rare
Rare earth minerals, also called rare earth elements, are not as rare as some people believe. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), rare earths are a “relatively abundant” group of 17 elements composed of scandium, yttrium, and lanthanides.
The elements are essential for producing strong magnets necessary for wind turbines; they also show up in smartphones, computer displays, and LED light bulbs, according to the Associated Press.
In the study, scientists looked at all 17 rare earths, as well as 20 different power sources. They calculated supplies and pollution from mining if green power surged to meet global goals to cut heat-trapping carbon emissions from fossil fuel.
The scientists found that more mining is needed, but there are enough minerals to go around, and drilling for them will not significantly worsen global warming.
“Decarbonization is going to be big and messy, but at the same time we can do it,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth. “I’m not worried we’re going to run out of these materials.”
One of the biggest global concerns centers around lithium, needed for batteries used by electric vehicles. Interestingly, the study does not look at that.
Looking at mineral demands for batteries is much more complicated than for electric power and that’s what the team will do next, Hausfather said. The power sector is still about one-third to half of the resource issue, he said.
It is not going to be easy
A lot depends on how fast the world switches to green energy, and there will be a shortage of supplies. For example, dysprosium is a mineral used for magnets in wind turbines and a big push for cleaner electricity would require three times as much dysprosium as currently produced, according to the study.
However, there is over 12 times the supply of dysprosium in reserve than would be needed in that clean energy push.
“There are enough materials in reserves. The analysis is robust and this study debunks those (running out of minerals) concerns,” said Daniel Ibarra, an environment professor at Brown University, who wasn’t part of the study but looks at lithium shortages. But he said production capacity has to grow for some “key metals” and one issue is how fast can it grow.
