President Vladimir Putin was among the first foreign leaders to extend his condolences to the American people, and the reverberations of the event rippled just as quickly through the Moscow political scene in a multitude of different directions, affecting not just Russian national security policy but also domestic economic and political policies.
Advocates for higher defense and security spending have new ammunition. And those groups supporting a greater Russian activism internationally have found an impetus for a new push. The military campaign in Chechnya may intensify, as Union of Rightist Forces Duma (SPS) faction leader Boris Nemtsov has abruptly abandoned his quest for a negotiated peace in Chechnya.
Duma speaker Gennadii Seleznev spoke in favor of increasing funds for combating terrorism. Russian intelligence services can also more convincingly make their own cases for greater resources in light of the failure of their U.S. counterparts to predict or prevent the attacks.
The oil price spike following the attacks may also benefit those seeking higher defense expenditures. In addition, many analysts believe that the opening of a U.S. bombing campaign would likely return prices to the high levels recorded last week.
In the sphere of foreign policy, Russian policymakers adopted a kind of “told you so” stance toward the 11 September events, calling attention to President Putin’s previous calls for world states to unite against terrorism. Likewise, opponents of the U.S. plans to develop a missile defense system emphasized the wisdom of their opposition to that plan, since the system would not have been able to prevent the attack on the World Trade Center. At the same time, other Russian policymakers saw new opportunities for Russia resulting from the U.S.’s inevitable reconcentration of its resources on combating terrorism. Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky suggested that Russia can now act as a gendarme for Europe.
The United States’s new focus on terrorism is also expected to give the Kremlin more latitude in resolving the conflict in Chechnya. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov declared on 13 September that he hopes the world will now understand what Russia has been up against in Chechnya. And news reports in Russian media have trumpeted alleged links between Chechen military commanders Shamil Basaev and Khattab and international terrorist Osama bin Laden.
And echoing concerns expressed about the U.S., political scientist Yelena Shestopal argued in an interview with “Nezavisimaya gazeta” on 13 September that an intensified battle against terrorism in Russia may lead to “some restrictions on civil rights and liberties.” She noted that Russia’s executive branch will have to take the lead in the battle since “the problem of terrorism is not solved by laws.” Such a prediction should provide little comfort to those observers who had already noted a tension between the Putin administration’s rhetorical emphasis on establishing a rule of law state and its efforts to centralize decision making, squash independent media, and selectively enforce laws aimed at the Kremlin’s political opponents.
