MOSCOW (dpa) – With order books for advanced weapons bulging in a world wracked by military conflict, it is small wonder that Russia is trying to become the world’s number two weapons exporter.
In the next four years, Russia may well edge into second place after the United States in terms of military-technical cooperation volume with other countries, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov predicted recently.
“Our portfolio has 20 ready contracts for exports of arms and military equipment to countries in the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America,” Klebanov said in March although he declined to specify the value of the deals.
Arms industry chiefs say Russian defence systems last year fetched more than 4.2 billion dollars on a world market worth around 30 billion, half of which is securely commanded by U.S. companies.
Some defence analysts say the Russian projections are vulnerable owing to a number of instable factors. But the leadership in Moscow says it can realistically clear the 5-billion-dollar mark and take the number two export spot ahead of Britain and France.
There has been renewed national confidence under President Vladimir Putin coupled with anger at the failure of U.S. government- funded projects in the 1990s to help restructure and convert the old Soviet defence sector. This has now led Moscow to ignore Washington’s objections and turn firmly to the next great seeker of modern weapons – Iran.
Spurred on by the recent visit to Moscow by Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, Russia’s government plans military cooperation with Teheran worth some 400 million dollars a year and maybe more.
Russia along with Ukraine also aims to make billions in the coming years on repair and modernisation of large batches of Soviet-produced tanks previously bought by countries like Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Syria.
Other parts of the world are also brimming with promise, say the Russian exporters.
“Southeast Asia can give us up to 1.5 billion dollars every year,” deputy general director of Russia’s central arms exporting agency Rosoboronexport, Viktor Kamardin, said in a recent interview.
In missile technology, for example, military experts believe Russia’s new shipborne Moskit-E missile complex can squeeze out the French Exocet in the Asian-Pacific region and the Middle East.
But while it looks fine on paper, the realities of the global arms business indicate that Russia may struggle in future to maintain even its current sales level, let alone expand its share of the market.
“The Russians make some fantastic weapons systems but in the world market today it’s not always enough to have the best product at the best price,” said Reuben Johnson, a U.S.-based international aviation and defence technology consultant.
“Procuring governments now want companies to come in and establish a production line, they want jobs for people locally, the technology transfer and benefits for their own industry,” he said, citing India and China as the only places Russia does this on a significant scale.
“These two countries are the big cash cows, but even they are starting to check off their defence requirements,” Johnson said. “Klebanov is now counting on Russia selling weapons to Iran and getting every bit of the billions they project, which almost never happens.”
Nor is all well on the production front in Russia. While huge foreign defence contracts are signed to great fanfares, efforts to meet the orders can be hobbled by chaos and decay in Russia’s sprawling military-industrial complex.
An estimated 800-million-dollar contract signed with India this year for the supply of 310 T-90S Russian battle tanks ran into trouble when the main assembly plant in the Urals found some of its suppliers and sub-contractors no longer make the tank parts needed.
But despite such problems and while sceptical of Klebanov’s forecasts, Russian analysts believe the country’s arms exports will at least tick along at a comfortable 4 billion dollars a year.
“Some sectors are struggling, but others like combat aircraft and diesel submarine production are swamped with orders and will sell strongly for a long time to come,” said Sergei Sokut, military correspondent for the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper.
“The problem comes when the Soviet-designed equipment finally becomes outdated in 15 years or so,” he said. “If it is possible today to reduce the amount of defence plants and concentrate orders on a small number of enterprises then there will be new generations of arms – and if not, very difficult times lie ahead.”
