If you ever want to be bored to death, ponderous military navel-gazing is a reliable option. In this case, the issue of future roles for special forces is under discussion. It’s almost, if not quite, a rhetorical question.
The current news is that after Afghanistan, in which special forces from many countries performed well and very effectively, US special forces are in an existential crisis. At least, that’s the implied issue. The theory, which is OK as far as it goes, is that the world has changed, the global military context has changed, and it’s unclear what special forces will have to do in future.
Well… No. Special forces were originally formed to carry out exceptional jobs for strategic and tactical purposes. They evolved into anti-terrorist fighters. Now, with the political environment they will probably have to go back to their original roles.
Special forces include:
- Active tactical assault and deep penetration teams (Commandos, Marine Raiders, Army Rangers, Air Force Special Ops, SAS, etc.)
- Specialist forces (US Navy SEALS)
- Reconnaissance (critical ground intelligence)
- Sabotage operations
- Counter terrorist forces
- Hit teams for important targets
- Complex warfare expert teams
- Hostage and rescue
- Various naval special ops teams and units
- Direct interfaces with communications and other intelligence
A simple formula for special operations units is “anything the regular forces can’t, don’t or shouldn’t do”. That formula isn’t going anywhere. It’s utterly unrealistic to expect grunts or other services to take on highly specialized work in “whatever” scenarios.
The absolute basics, oversimplified
(Professionals please excuse this very basic stuff. This is supposed to be an article, not a book.)
Generally special forces are the first on the ground in any type of warfare. They’re trained and expected to deliver very high military values in a very wide range of possible operations. These guys do NOT grow on trees. They’re usually and actually the best of the best in their militaries.
The world’s militaries include a lot of special ops forces in various forms. Russia and China, in particular, have multiple special forces units, and they’re effective, a significant threat. Russia’s SPETSNAZ, for example, aren’t famous for their ornamental uses. The People’s Liberation Army has an estimated up to 14,000 operators, also probably not for purely cosmetic purposes.
Special forces are a real inherent and extremely dangerous threat in any war scenario. You have to be able to counter them, and predict the risks they pose to your side. They operate quickly and almost invisibly. They can deliver almost literally any kind of attack on any kind of target.
Generally speaking, local security probably won’t have anything like the capacity to deal with them. So you need anti-special forces, aka other special forces.
To give a slightly banal example:
- Suppose China did launch an invasion of Taiwan. The first stage of the attack probably won’t include the editor of the Global Times waving his vocabulary. (What a pity.)
- The first PLA troops involved will be special forces. The PLA troops will probably work with pre-existing local saboteurs, hackers, and similar forces.
- This type of attack could target absolutely anything at all and do a lot of damage very fast indeed. At baseline level, they could trash the entire island. Power, water, communications, command and control, you name it; by definition, those are pretty soft targets. If successful, they could cause absolute chaos.
By the way – If that sounds like “complex warfare” to you, you ain’t kidding. It’s a bit more complex when the local enemy forces have about 30 to 60,000 of their little friends about to drop in, too.
Obviously, you’re not going to send very sincere underequipped Boy Scouts to try to manage this extremely serious immediate security risk. You need special forces in the mix to even evaluate the risks, let alone do anything about them.
Take those basics to a global scale, and you have the future of special forces. Right now, US special forces are currently training local Taiwanese forces. They need to be there. That’s just one very straightforward role for special forces which will be pretty common in future.
Future roles may include:
Technological roles: Not as Hollywood-glitzy, maybe. Tech roles are likely to be critical for managing the next generations of military mayhem, particularly the everything-by-wire scenarios.
Expertise: Special forces aren’t called “special” for no reason. There are almost any number of areas of specialization, from astronomy to zoology which might figure in future special ops.
Hybrid intelligence operations: Military intelligence isn’t really a contradiction in terms. It’s just sometimes rather hard to prove. Particularly to military commanders. A mix of special ops and intelligence is the norm, now. In future, it will be hardwired into special ops because it must be there. What’s always going to be new is the sheer number of different types of intelligence, sourcing, and information handling.
Cost-effective: Special forces are the incarnate form of cheap kill in an almost absurd number of ways. They can do incredible damage at comparatively very low risk and with low or preferably no casualties. That point isn’t even arguable.
Tactical: Special forces can be horror stories for anyone trying to defend against them. They eat up security resources, time, and in some cases, sanity. This follows through from the cost-effective factors.
Strategic: From hybrid intelligence in particular, but also from all the other operational values, special forces have a strategic role. Target evaluation, for example, is a special forces basic skill. At higher levels, this skill set is truly invaluable. What’s the thing to hit which will do the most damage? You know who to ask, and hopefully after 900 words or so, why.
Any military force without these skill sets will be basically ineffectual against them. Special forces are integral to any future military, any service, and any war scenarios. The future for special forces is looking good, but with a lot of hard work attached.
