Aside from eliminating most forms of life, would the effect of a nuclear war have on Earth? A new study based on computer modelling finds that vast quantities of smoke from a nuclear war would eventually devastate ozone layer leading to a significant alteration to the climate. The computer simulations were based on several models:
- Community Earth System Model of global climate.
- Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model.
- Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Radiation Model, which calculates the light available.
- Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres, looking at smoke levels.
One of the simulations run was a global nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, which will produce some 150 megatons of smoke. Other simulations looked at nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan.
The models and the resultant atmospheric impacts of a global nuclear war appear to be more severe than previous studies suggest. The research comes from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research.
For surviving human populations, following the initial nuclear winter and plummeting temperatures, the later devastation of the ozone layer will further endanger human health as well as limiting available food supplies. The nuclear winter itself would lead to widespread crop failure and famine. Then, as the smoke from this phase clears after a decade or so, the depletion of the ozone layer begins. The continuance of life would be challenging and diminishing.
This is based on an assessment of complex chemistry interactions taking place in the stratosphere, influencing the amounts of ultraviolet radiation that reach the planet’s surface. Levels of ultraviolet radiation would increase as the result of ozone depletion. The chemical interactions involve nitrogen oxides produced from the fireball created by a nuclear weapon explosion.
Other factors affecting ozone levels include stratospheric heating and reduced photochemistry on stratospheric ozone.
This means dangerous impact of ultraviolet radiation would be felt worldwide, irrespective of whether a nuclear was confined to a specific region, such as in the northern hemisphere. Most significantly, the effects would destroy most of the ozone layer across a 15-year period, with the ozone loss peaking at around 75 percent worldwide.
For surviving human populations, the increased levels of ultraviolet radiation would be linked to skin cancer, cataracts, and various immunological disorders, making life precarious.
The research appears in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, titled “Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation.”
